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Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Jets vs. Lions predictions and picks for their NFL Week 15 showdown, which is live Sunday on CBS at 1 p.m. ET.

After losing their hold on an AFC playoff spot, the New York Jets will attempt to work their way back into contention while slowing down a surging Detroit Lions team that has won five of its last six.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for both New York and Detroit. After winning five of their first seven games, the Jets looked as if they were on a mission to end an 11-season playoff drought. But since then, they’ve experienced a late-season spiral, losing four of six. Meanwhile, the Lions are peaking at the right time, coming off a 34-23 victory over NFC North-leading Minnesota in what was one of their best wins of the season.

Now both teams sit ninth in their respective conferences, and a pair of head coaches who inherited struggling teams ahead of the 2021 season are hoping this is the year where things finally start to turn around. Robert Saleh has instilled a defensive mindset into the Jets that he brought with him from his time in San Francisco as the 49ers’ defensive coordinator, while Dan Campbell’s energy and enthusiasm has sent a shockwave through the Lions’ offense. Question is, will better offense or better defense reign supreme on Sunday?

There’s no denying that Detroit boasts an intimidating offense, but the Jets have proven that they can in fact slow down some of the league’s best.

The under has hit in six of New York’s last eight games, with two of those coming against the Buffalo Bills, who have the fourth-best scoring offense in the league. Since Week 6, the Jets have also been involved in only one game where at least 45 points were scored.

It’s not like New York’s offense has been stellar. The Jets haven’t been able to eclipse the 20-point mark in five of their last seven contests. While it will be facing a porous Lions defense this week, don’t expect New York to score enough points to give life to the over.

Jets vs. Lions pick: Under 44.5 total points @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

With such an even matchup, consider breaking things down quarter by quarter on Sunday.

Regardless of the outcome of the game as a whole, New York has shown that it can keep things close early. Yes, the Jets are skidding right now, but they’ve managed to grab a lead or keep things tied through the first 15 minutes of action in nine of their last 10 games.

You’ll need to throw a little bit more coin on this wager due to the odds, but it’s one of the safer bets in a game that’s sure to be pretty tight throughout.

Jets vs. Lions pick: Jets to cover +0.5 through first quarter @ -170 with Caesars Sportsbook

It’s rare that we’ll ever tell you to take the under on St. Brown’s receiving prop, but this is one of those instances.

Sauce Gardner has headlined a rejuvenated Jets secondary that hasn’t backed down from anyone. That very unit held Stefon Diggs to 37 yards last week, limited Justin Jefferson to 45 yards on Dec. 4 and hasn’t allowed a pass-catcher to go over 56 yards over the last four weeks.

New York has done a great job of limiting opponents’ best receivers, and now St. Brown could be the next name on a long list of wideouts that haven’t been able to get going against the Jets.

If you’re still dead set on taking the over on a Lions receiver’s prop, look toward someone like Kalif Raymond (34 receptions, 401 yards) or Josh Reynolds (34 receptions, 427 yards), who are likely to have more bettor-friendly lines.

Jets vs. Lions pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown under 85.5 receiving yards @ -120 with Caesars Sportsbook

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.