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Dave Blezow makes his NFL Week 16 picks for Saturday’s games.All lines courtesy of BetMGM.

OK fellow football bettors, what do you call a team that outscores its opponent 39-3 in the second half and overtime and still can’t cover a -3.5 spread?

Answer: the Vikings.

Yes, the same team that has an 11-3 record but somehow has scored just two more points than its opponents over 14 games, a near mathematical impossibility. 

There were some results that befell this handicapper last week that would be considered worse beats, such as the Jets losing to the Lions on the slowest jailbreak reception in NFL history and the Patriots falling to the Raiders on one of those dumb lateral plays that at least came with the comic relief of seeing Chandler Jones flatten Mac Jones as if he were Wile E. Coyote getting hit by an Acme truck.

But the Vikings’ 39-36 “win” over the Colts prompted a different, more resigned response: Yep, figures!

The Giants enter Saturday afternoon in Minneapolis at 8-5-1. They have a negative point differential by 25 points despite the good record, but seem to be carrying a good vibe after their prime-time victory over the Commanders last week. 

Road underdog is a sweet spot for the Giants, who are 4-1 ATS in that role this season, and Daniel Jones is 15-5 ATS in his career as a road ’dog, per Josh Appelbaum of VSiN. 

I’ll leave the final word to Mike Roche, long-time reader of this column and star handicapper in the Mitton Family League betting contest: “Giants defense will contain Kirk Cousins. It might take a Christmas miracle for a Giants victory, but coming off a big win last week in Washington, my bet is on the Giants to cover.” 

Giants vs. Vikings pick: Giants +4

Saturday

I admit it’s tough to lay this many points with a team that has scored 10, 16 and 3 points in Tyler Huntley’s three starts in place of Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens are still 9-5, and the alternative is a 5-9 southern dome team in 22-degree weather. Maybe the Ravens’ defense can take a few back the other way to help out.

Though this line has moved dramatically in Houston’s direction, the low temps (21 degrees) make me want to fade the warm-weather, indoor team. Derrick Henry rolled up 219 yards Oct. 30 in Houston, and I don’t think the Texans will relish trying to tackle him here.

New matchup for the Chiefs, but I’ll repeat what I wrote here last week and in several previous ones: Do you notice the Chiefs rarely cover the spread? They are 3-10-1 ATS this season, a remarkable feat for an 11-3, first-place team. Don’t mind taking this number with Pete Carroll and Geno Smith at all.

In contrast to the Chiefs, the best ATS team in the NFL this season is the Bengals at 11-3. Cincinnati has won six in a row, scoring at least 34 points in three of those. Even their low bar of 20 points in that stretch might be enough to cover against New England’s extremely limited offense.

Sam Darnold will always have his Detroit Lions memory, the Jets’ 48-17 win at Ford Field in his NFL debut. Though Darnold is 2-1 in his three games as Panthers starter, he now faces a surging and opportunistic Lions team that beat the Jets in similar conditions to Saturday’s 33 and sunny forecast.

Though the spread looks tasty and six of the Bills’ past seven wins have come by 10 points or fewer, there’s this: In the past five games Justin Fields has played, he has led the Bears in rushing yards. The Bears have to stop letting Fields try to be a one-man team, particularly against a hard-hitting defense in 9-degree temperatures.

If you’ve been paying attention to the running theme, you know where I’m going for this game that has a forecast of 12 degrees, precipitation and winds between 29 and 60 mph. That would be the NFL’s No. 5 rushing attack and not the team that plays in the big dome in Louisiana.

The Commanders are a decent team that plays a lot of close games, and this is a pretty hefty ask of 49ers rookie QB Brock Purdy. Still, I’m left with one thought from last week’s Washington loss to the Giants. That game was their shot, and they couldn’t get it done. Now they fly cross country on a short week to face a team that can really light it up. Tough spot.

The line jumped three points toward Dallas on the news MVP favorite Jalen Hurts was likely to miss the game with a shoulder injury. I consider that a gift and have no problem backing Gardner Minshew, a scrapper who will make good use of all of the Eagles’ talent on offense.

Going to switch it up and back the Raiders, a warm-weather team that plays indoors, in the 11-degree Western Pennsylvania temperatures. Though everyone will be reminiscing about the great Franco Harris and the Immaculate Reception, I just think the Raiders have edges at the three most important positions with Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs and Lambeau-hardened Davante Adams.