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Our NFL betting writer offers his best betting picks and predictions for the matchup between the Packers and Bills scheduled for Sunday night in Orchard Park, N.Y. at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers and current frontrunner Josh Allen will battle in a matchup that the Bills are expected to dominate.

Green Bay is 0-6 all-time when visiting the Bills and this version of the Packers have lost three straight games as they try to upset the AFC’s top team.

Allen has been one of the best players in the NFL over the first third of the season and he’ll look to shine while sharing the same field as Rodgers. Allen got the best of Kansas City star Patrick Mahomes, a former MVP, two weeks ago before Buffalo (5-1) had a bye last weekend.

Allen has passed for 1,980 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions and also has 257 yards and two scores on the ground. His stellar play has helped the Bills rank first in total offense (440.8) and second in scoring offense (29.3).

Allen spoke about admiring Rodgers as a kid and envisioning making the same throws. He pointed out that he plays against the defense, which, OK fine, the Bills have the edge there too as they lead the NFL in scoring defense (13.5) and total defense (281.5) behind outside linebacker Von Miller (six sacks) and safety Jordan Poyer (four interceptions, tied for the NFL lead).

Buffalo has won three consecutive games and the Packers don’t seem primed to pull an upset. The line is huge — the largest underdog Rodgers has ever been — but we confidently take the Bills to cover the spread.

Pick: Bills to cover -11, @ -110 via Caesars Sportsbook

The Packers (3-4) have scored 14 or fewer points three times this season and last week’s 23-21 setback against the lowly Washington Commanders caused Aaron Rodgers to speak out. He said the players who are making too many mistakes shouldn’t be playing.

Interesting timing as Rodgers passed for a season-low 194 yards and the offense went 0-for-6 on third-down conversions. Simply put, Rodgers isn’t looking like the player who won NFL MVP honors the past two seasons and it also isn’t just because the team traded star receiver Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Packers rank just 23rd in scoring offense (18.3) and 20th in total offense (331.6) and are going to be hard-pressed to keep pace with the high-flying Bills. Green Bay desperately needs a win and it will be relying on Rodgers (1,597 yards, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions) to come through with a big game.

Right now, the Packers’ offense isn’t going to scare anyone, including trick or treaters in Buffalo. Even if the Bills score 30, this game can still fall under the projection.

Pick: Under 47.5 total points, @ -110 via Caesars Sportsbook

The Buffalo passing game has been clicking but Allen and his receivers are in for a big challenge because Green Bay leads the NFL in passing defense (168.9). But an interesting side note is that the Packers are allowing opponents to complete 69 percent of their passes, the second-worst rate in the NFL.

That indicates Green Bay guards against the long play and leaves underneath routes open. Allen is hitting on 66.9 percent of his throws and star receiver Stefon Diggs has four 100-yard outings while catching 49 passes for 656 yards and six touchdowns.

This is what sticks out: Diggs has eight catches of 20 or more yards and 224 yards after the catch. So we see him having a strong chance at his fifth 100-yard performance in seven games this season.

Pick: Stefon Diggs over 78.5 receiving yards, @ -115 via Caesars Sportsbook

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.