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Our NFL betting expert brings you his best Titans vs. Colts predictions and picks for their NFL Week 4 showdown, which is live Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.

After rough starts to the season, both the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts are looking up at a surprise leader in the AFC South — the 2-1 Jacksonville Jaguars — as they head into a divisional clash in Indy.

Both the Titans and the Colts found the win column for the first time in Week 3. For Tennessee (1-2), a fast start enabled a 24-22 win at home over the winless Las Vegas Raiders. The Titans were done scoring by halftime, and Derrick Henry chugged along for 85 rushing yards — he’s failed to break the century mark so far this season.

The Colts’ win turned more heads because after a Week 1 tie with the lowly Houston Texans and a 24-0 defeat to the Jaguars to open the Matt Ryan era, they topped the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 in their home opener.

The recipe for Indianapolis to win games couldn’t be easier to follow. The defense is doing its part; the key is whether the offense will produce 20 or more points on a given day.

The Colts had a top-10 scoring defense a year ago and are coming off their best showing of the new season. Adding Yannick Ngakoue and the veteran presence of Stephon Gilmore to a solid unit that already featured DeForest Buckner and Shaquille Leonard has only helped.

What’s promising for Colts fans is that they beat the Chiefs despite star running back Jonathan Taylor only managing 71 rushing yards on 21 carries. It was mostly Ryan who guided the 16-play game-winning drive.

Now Taylor has an achy toe but gets a chance to feast on a Titans team that ranks fourth-worst in the league in run defense, while Taylor’s counterpart, Henry, faces Indy’s third-ranked run D.

Leonard is recovering from a back injury and on track to make his season debut Sunday. But note that as of this writing, several Colts starters, including Ngakoue (back), Gilmore (hamstring), Buckner (elbow), and Taylor (toe), were nursing injuries and missing practice. The absence of more than one of those players could tilt the scales in Tennessee’s favor, but otherwise, the Colts are in a prime position to build off last week’s victory with another home win.

Our Pick: Colts to cover -3.5 @ -110

If the Colts’ defense has one discernible weakness, it’s defending against tight ends. After giving up 1,027 receiving yards and eight scores to tight ends last year, they’ve already yielded three touchdowns to tight ends in 2022, second-most in the league.

That’s why it’s disappointing that there aren’t any Tennessee tight ends on the board at Caesars for any touchdown props in this game.

Ryan Tannehill has thrown just three touchdowns through three weeks — two to running back Dontrell Hilliard in Week 1 and one to tight end Geoff Swaim. Receivers Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, and company have yet to find the end zone.

As such, this Tannehill prop gives much longer odds for him to complete multiple touchdown passes this week. At this number, we’ll take the over. Whether he’s finding Swaim or fellow tight end Austin Hooper in the red zone or finally connecting with receivers on the outside, a two-touchdown game is not some pipe dream.

Our Pick: Ryan Tannehill over 1.5 TD passes @ +133

Henry was a monster last season before a foot injury cut his regular season short. While he may have recovered from that, his game hasn’t returned to peak form.

Through three games, he has 192 rushing yards and two touchdowns, but he’s managed that on just 3.6 yards per carry, far below his career average of 4.8.

Not only is a weaker passing game no longer keeping defenses honest, but the offensive line is also to blame. Tennessee moved on from Pro Bowl guard Rodger Saffold and starting tackle David Quessenberry in the offseason and became far less experienced upfront as a result.

It’s a bad time for Henry and this line to be coming up against a Colts defense that ranks third in the NFL with 77 rushing yards allowed per game — and first in the league at 2.6 yards per carry.

Our Pick: Derrick Henry under 71.5 rushing yards @ -115

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.