A lot of bettors attempt to make their mark picking low-hanging fruit. Maybe that involves waiting for injury information and playing the side that looks to benefit from the news, or going all-in against a team that just had an important player placed into COVID-19 protocol. Either way, it’s a strategy that can yield pretty good results if a bettor is consistently getting the best of the number and beating the closing line.

However, if a bettor is strolling into the sportsbook after markets have already been shaped by news and narratives, it would be wise to consider taking a contrarian position. Here are three situations from the past week in hockey that should cause bettors to consider betting against conventional wisdom in the future.

Not very long after it was announced that four Washington Capitals players, including Alexander Ovechkin and starting goaltender Ilya Samsonov, would miss at least four games after a positive coronavirus test on the team, bookmakers presented the betting public with odds for the Capitals’ home opener on Friday versus the Buffalo Sabres. The Capitals were +110 underdogs. However, the market shifted substantially toward the Sabres on the eve of the game and by midnight, the Capitals were available to be had at +125 on the moneyline. The Sabres did close a small favorite, but nowhere near the heights of their overnight price of -150. Washington won the game in a shootout. Sometimes it pays to get a few less hours of shuteye.

Bettors also rushed to back the Edmonton Oilers when it was confirmed that Auston Matthews would not be in the lineup for the Toronto Maple Leafs after suffering an injury when the teams met two nights prior. The Oilers’ line immediately picked up steam and it was only a matter of minutes before +130 could no longer be found. However, there seemed to have already been some speculation in the market that Matthews would in fact miss the game, and when the Maple Leafs’ odds settled at around -125, those who felt the game had been appropriately priced to begin with quickly got their bets in.

The Maple Leafs closed around -140 so it sure looks as if more than a few sharps saw the shift in the odds as their entry point into the market. The Maple Leafs overcame an early deficit and defeated Connor McDavid and the Oilers, 4-2. The lesson here is to never assume that news hasn’t already been priced into the game line. There is a lot of speculation in betting markets.

It’s important to remember that overnight markets are shaped by smaller bets, and most professional bettors prefer to get down on game day when betting limits are at their highest. Consider that, and maybe look for overreactions in the overnight market. For example, the Dallas Stars finally opened up their season at home on Friday with a big 7-0 win over the Nashville Predators. However, just like the game between the Capitals and Sabres, this market was influenced by overnight betting.

The Stars carried a price tag of around +110 while most bettors were sleeping, but they were still available at or around even money early on game day. Dallas closed around -115 so it seems as if the sharp money felt that too much was made of their long layoff and must’ve viewed the Stars (at an underdog price) as a value bet, especially with head coach Rick Bowness announcing that defenseman John Klingberg would be in the starting lineup after being listed as questionable.