After three straight losses, the Florida Panthers’ chances of winning the division are nothing compared to what bookmakers would have you believe.

Looking ahead, the team will play nearly half of their remaining games against the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Panthers will have also played 10 out of 14 games on the road prior to capping off their season with a three-game homestand. A lot would have to go right for the Panthers, and wrong for the Hurricanes and Lightning, in order for this to happen. By my estimation, the Panthers will only win the division about 6 percent of the time. In other words, there would be no value unless the Panthers were being offered at 20/1 or better.

With that being said, this is a very good hockey team that isn’t going to lie down. According to Evolving Hockey, the Panthers rank in the top-10 at five-on-five in both shot differential and expected goal differential. This means that not only do they regularly hold an edge in shot quality over their opponents, but they enjoy a territorial advantage as well. On special teams, the Panthers look rather mediocre on the surface, grading out as an average team on both the power play and the penalty kill. However, there’s reason to believe that the Panthers’ power-play percentage could improve given that only four teams generate expected goals on the power play at a higher rate.

Tuesday, the Panthers will take on the Dallas Stars, a team that they have matched up against six times this season. They have come away with the win on four occasions, but the Stars bested them on Saturday. In fact, the game was over before it really began as the Stars put two past goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky in the first two minutes and added another one before the midway point of the first frame. Bobrovsky’s save percentage dropped to .907 on the season. Expect to see Chris Driedger in goal for the rematch against the Stars. Driedger has posted a .930 save percentage in 18 games played this season. The Stars have faced off against both Bobrovsky and Driedger three times each and while they’ve managed to average three goals against the former, the latter has held them to one goal twice.

In the six previous meetings against the Stars, the Panthers have generally controlled play. On an aggregate basis, the Panthers have generated approximately 10 more shot attempts than the Stars when the two teams have met and have enjoyed a 3.4-2.5 advantage in expected goals. DraftKings are offering the Panthers at -106 on the moneyline which implies that this game is a coin flip. By my estimation, the Panthers will win the game roughly 56 percent of the time which translates to odds of -127. The last time the Panthers lost three games in a row, they won their next six outings. Bettors shouldn’t expect that kind of run out of the Panthers this time around, but backing the Panthers at -106 to defeat the Dallas Stars is a value bet in the short term.