The Stanley Cup Playoffs start Wednesday and you don’t need a betting preview to tell you Tampa Bay has been the NHL’s best team this season and ran away with the Presidents’ Trophy for most points.
The Lightning are the 12/5 favorite at William Hill to lift Lord Stanley’s Cup. They are followed by the Sharks at 8/1 and Golden Knights at 17/2, but the odd thing is those two teams face off in the opening round, and at William Hill, it’s the Golden Knights who are favored.
I prefer to pass on the futures to win it all and instead will concentrate on who is going to win each series and how it will go game-by-game. For those who have been following on Twitter @ViewFromVegas and VSiN.com or who read my piece in The Post on Feb. 25, the 800-pound octopus in the room is whether we should continue to bet First Period Over/Unders in the playoffs.
For the uninitiated, the #FollowtheMoney6 Over teams (the FTM6) were the Lightning, Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, Sharks, Devils and Penguins as they were hitting better than 67 percent with First Period Overs (more than 1.5 goals scored in the first period) much of the season and thus still beating the increased vig the books were charging the deeper we got into the season.
I’m not so sure the switch to playoff hockey will change this dynamic much. Teams that made the postseason by playing wide-open hockey aren’t suddenly going to go into shells. Also helping us is the fact we could see some lower vig on the First Period Totals as the books go with conventional wisdom, so I believe it’s worth it to see if this continues.
Here are my “Tuley’s Takes” on the opening-round matchups. Series prices are from William Hill in order of series start:
Tampa Bay Lightning (-400) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (+320): Here we have two FTM6 Over teams facing each other (the trend paid 83 percent on the season when that occurred) with the Lightning going 61-21 (74.4 percent). The Blue Jackets were 53-29 (64.6 percent), making the -180 price on the First Period Over in Game 1 playable (either straight or parlayed with my other preferred 1P play, the Stars Under). Best Bet: First Period Overs (as long as we don’t go down three units).
Pittsburgh Penguins (-140) vs. New York Islanders (+120): Pittsburgh doesn’t have home-ice advantage but is favored due to having Sidney Crosby, plus more playoff experience. Penguins First Period Overs were good to me, but they’re playing an Under team so I’ll pass unless throwing in some small parlays. Best Bet: Islanders as road underdogs in Pittsburgh in Games 3, 4 and 6 (if necessary).
St. Louis Blues (-120) vs. Winnipeg Jets (Even): St. Louis is another lower-seeded team in the series favorite role after making the playoffs with a late run. I would look to the Jets as series underdog, but the price is too short. Best Bet: Jets as road ’dogs in Games 3, 4 and 6 (if necessary).
Nashville Predators (-180) vs. Dallas Stars (+160): Dallas was the best 1P Under team by far and now faces the No. 2 Under team, so it’s not surprising the books have juiced the 1P Under to -180, but I’ll start the series by playing it. The Stars are also a live series underdog with their defense and goaltending. Best Bet: Stars +160 to win series; First Period Unders (in parlay with Columbus-Tampa Bay First Period Over if available).
Vegas Golden Knights (-115) vs. San Jose Sharks (-105): Homer alert! Our Vegas Golden Knights open against the Sharks, a 1P Over team, but I’m not as excited about that with Marc-Andre Fleury back in goal for VGK. I will probably throw the 1P Over in some parlays, but otherwise watching this series as a fan. Best Bet: First Period Overs in parlay with another FTM6 team.
Boston Bruins (-160) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (+140): You’ll quickly notice a trend that all the bet-able series start Wednesday. I expect the favorites to not have much problem moving on in the ones that start Thursday. The Bruins won the regular-season series 3-1 vs. the Maple Leafs and are priced just about right (slight lean to Over as it went 2-1-1 in their games, but not going Over 6). Best Bet: Pass.
Washington Capitals (-155) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (+135): I don’t have any confidence in the Hurricanes, as the Capitals won all four regular-season meetings and I don’t expect this to go any differently (Unders were 3-1 so maybe slight lean to Under, but books have shaded it down to 5.5). Best Bet: Pass.
Calgary Flames (-200) vs. Colorado Avalanche (+175): Another mismatch in my mind with Flames sweeping the regular-season series 3-0 (Overs 2-1, but again books are taking away value with Game 1 at O/U 6). Best Bet: Pass
Dave Tuley is senior reporter at VSiN. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.
