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And just like that, the Tampa Bay Lightning are one win away from their 10th playoff series victory in a row. Ahead of three games to none over the Florida Panthers, the Lightning are slight -125 favorites to close the show at Amalie Arena on Monday night. It’s quite the story considering the Bolts were considerable underdogs to win the series, especially with the news that Brayden Point would miss time with an injury. 

Perhaps what’s most demoralizing for the Panthers is that they haven’t played all that poorly for a lot of this series. In fact, at 5-on-5 these two teams have basically been dead even. Florida has tallied 33 more shot attempts, but the Cats only boast a +0.34 expected goal difference at 5-on-5 and the two teams each have generated 25 high-danger scoring chances through the first three games. 

Of course, those numbers only tell part of the story. When things are this tight at 5-on-5, the team that plays better on special teams and/or gets the stronger goaltending usually is the one that comes out on top. Tampa Bay has won both of those battles going away.

Also read: Updated 2022 Stanley Cup odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: FLA +1.5 (-250) vs. TB -1.5 (+190)

Moneyline: FLA (+105) vs. TB (-125)

Total: Over 6 (-125) | Under 6 (+105)

Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the MVP of this series by a mile. Last spring’s Conn Smythe winner, Vasilevskiy seemed to find his all-world form in Game 7 against the Toronto Maple Leafs and hasn’t looked back. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Panthers have generated 9.93 expected goals on their 105 shots on goal. They’ve scored three times. In other words, Vasilevskiy has been worth nearly seven goals for the Bolts through the first three contests in this series. Considering Tampa has outscored Florida, 11-3, in this series so far, it’s fair to argue that this matchup is a lot tighter if Vasilevskiy played “just” above-average in goal for the Lightning.

While Vasilevskiy and the special teams battle have clearly gone against the Panthers, they also aren’t getting enough out of their best players so far. Outside of Carter Verhaeghe and Claude Giroux, nobody in Florida’s top-six has been consistent through the first nine games of the postseason. Sascha Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau have combined for three goals and 12 points in 18 combined games. Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart, and Anthony Duclair have three goals and 10 points between them. This does not look like the team that set the record for goals scored in a season during the Salary Cap Era.

With the Panthers down 3-0 and visibly frustrated by the Lightning, bettors now have this conundrum to navigate: Do you buy low on the Cats? Or is this going to be one of those scenarios where the team in the 0-3 hole just throws in the towel?

What complicates that quandary is that the Panthers do have an ace in the hole, so to speak. Due to a scheduling quirk, Florida and Tampa Bay will play the first back-to-back of the postseason. That means that the Panthers’ head coach can tap Spencer Knight to get his first start of the playoffs in lieu of Sergei Bobrovsky. And while Bobrovsky has not been the problem for Florida in this series, it does make sense for Brunette to give his goalie of the future some playoff experience. 

Knight was hot and cold during the regular season, but he finished quite strong and had plenty of people wondering if he would start Game 1 of the postseason ahead of Bobrovsky. 

Whether it’s Bobrovsky or Knight, they’ll have their hands full trying to keep pace with Vasilevskiy at the other side of the net. And when you factor in the way Tampa has executed a terrific defensive gameplan by negating Florida’s speed by gumming up the neutral zone, this game starts to have all the ingredients for another under. 

At one end of the ice, you have a struggling offense going up against the world’s best goaltender playing behind an in-form defense. At the opposite end of the rink, you have an offense that is playing a pragmatic, patient game that is just as focused on limiting mistakes as it is on creating scoring chances.

As long as Florida’s goaltending holds up, this game should be tight.

Under 6 +105 (BetMGM)