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We’ve got ourselves a true four-point NHL game between the Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals on Thursday night. The Capitals are currently holding onto the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with 62 points from 56 games, but the Panthers are right on their heels with 60 points from 57 contests. 

As it stands now, the betting market makes the Caps a -145 favorite to qualify for the postseason ahead of the Panthers, who are currently sitting at +130.

A win on Thursday night, especially in regulation, would go a long way for either team in this razor-tight race.

7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+

The playoff race in the Eastern Conference has really been a sight to behold lately. In all likelihood, the race will come down to five teams (Penguins, Capitals, Panthers, Islanders and Sabres) for two spots, but calling it a race is a bit of an overstatement. None of the five teams in the hunt have won more than five of their last 10 games, which has actually allowed Detroit to creep within five points of the Capitals.

And it’s not like the Wings have been playing the lights out – they’re 6-3-1 in their last 10. 

Despite that, there seems to be a consensus that the Panthers are on the verge of putting together a run to vault themselves into the pole position. And while Florida’s 11-6-2 stretch has pushed them firmly into the mix, they still are struggling with consistency. The Cats are just 4-4-1 and can never seem to build momentum after a big win.

The Capitals, meanwhile, are in dreadful form. Washington is 4-6 in its last 10 games and followed up an impressive win in Boston with a dud against the San Jose Sharks at home.

Washington’s current swoon is actually part of a bigger one that dates back quite some time. Over their last 25 games, the Caps have gone 13-10-2, which is the 20th-best record in the NHL. But it just so happens that the Panthers are one of the 11 teams with a worse record in that span.

It’s hard to find much of a silver lining in how Washington has been playing of late, but the good news is that the Caps are putting up some decent numbers at 5-on-5. The Capitals have created 20 more high-danger scoring chances than they’ve conceded in their last 10 games, while the Panthers are a -6 in that same category. 

Even without Alex Ovechkin in the lineup, there really isn’t all that much separating these two teams. They are both inconsistent and hard to trust, but the market sentiment surrounding the Panthers seems to be a lot higher than it is for the Caps and I don’t see a reason for that.

Perhaps Florida is the slightly better team overall, but the Capitals should have the goaltending edge and are at home, so getting them as an underdog seems like the way to go in this one.

Washington Capitals +105 (PointsBet)