The Edmonton Oilers skate into Nashville on Thursday night as slight road underdogs. The Oilers, who are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, are currently sitting at -105, with the Predators coming back as -115 favorites. 

For the first three months of the NHL season, the noise surrounding the Oilers was deafening. Edmonton came into October with Stanley Cup aspirations and 36 games into the season the team had 18 wins, a -6 goal differential, and was allowing 3.4 goals against per game. 

NHL Stanley Cup odds have the Oilers at +2800 to win the cup and the Predators at +4000.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: Oilers +1.5 (-250) vs. Predators -1.5 (+200)

Moneyline: Oilers +100 vs. Predators -120

Total: Over 6 (-120) | Under 6 (+100)

The media pressure on the Oilers reached a fever pitch after a 6-0 loss to the Panthers on Jan. 20. That defeat was Edmonton’s seventh in a row and 13th in its previous 15th games.

There were more than a few problems with the Oilers through the first half of the season, but the team’s biggest flaw was in goal where Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith each sported sub-.900 save percentages and combined for a -12.56 Goals Saved Above Expected. That kind of goaltending has the potential to sink any team, even one with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

It was clear the Oilers needed to change something or run the risk of losing another season during McDavid and Draisaitl’s prime. Instead of trying to g.o out and upgrade in goal, general manager Ken Holland decided to make a switch behind the bench by handing Dave Tippett his walking papers and bringing in Jay Woodcroft. The move has paid off.

Edmonton has skated to a 19-8-3 record in Woodcroft’s first 30 games and is now firmly entrenched into a playoff spot, something that looked precarious just six weeks ago.

While improved goaltending has certainly played a part in Edmonton’s turnaround, the Oilers have improved all over the ice and now look much closer to the contender we all expected when the season started. 

In their last 15 games, the Oilers have skated to a 51.5% expected goals rate and are scoring 3.26 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Most importantly, Smith has found some form in goal, posting a .916 save percentage and a +5.27 GSAx over his last 10 games. 

With Smith (and Koskinen) in decent form, Edmonton becomes a much more palatable team from a betting standpoint. And getting the Oilers as a slight underdog against a Predators team that has been getting results despite some largely pedestrian underlying metrics over the past few weeks seems like a good spot.

Oilers vs. Predators prediction: Edmonton Oilers -110 or better (BetMGM)