When looking at Thursday’s Arizona versus Oregon State game from a historical perspective, it would be a mismatch in favor of Arizona. This game is being played in 2019, though, and the Beavers are 10-4 against the spread in Pac-12 play while Arizona is 6-9.
A big reason for Arizona’s tailspin toward the end of January and early February was the loss of starting guard Brandon Williams. Without him, the Wildcats went 1-5 straight up and against the spread. While his return is nice, he shoots just 30.8 percent from 3-point range and Arizona collectively is 197th among Division I teams in that category.
The first time these teams played, Arizona made 13-of-27 3-pointers to win 82-71 at home, and though Oregon State’s weak spot is 3-point shooting defense, it is highly doubtful the Wildcats can duplicate that. Revenge is on the mind of coach Wayne Tinkle’s squad, which enters Thursday third in the conference with a 9-5 straight up record.
Oregon State separates itself by being able to allow nothing easy to the rim and in the paint on defense. Seven-footer Kylor Kelley is second in the country in blocked shots with 3.4 per game.
That size also gives Oregon State the advantage on the glass with Arizona entering the game 171st in rebound rate and Oregon State 64th among Division I teams. With Arizona being 289th in the country in percentage of opponents’ shots it blocks and ranking 236th in opponents’ 2-point field-goal shooting percentage, it will allow Oregon State to win the game in the interior.
Oregon State has done a nice job of slowing games down, coming in 263rd in possessions per game, and the Beavers will look to use that slower pace to knock off an Arizona bunch that allowed them to make 65.7 percent of their 2-point shots the first time around.
The play: Oregon State, -4.



