Though NFL observers have been anticipating the end of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era in New England for years, it never felt more imminent than after last week’s shocking home loss to a Dolphins team that lost consecutive games to the Jets and the Giants.
The debacle dropped the Patriots from a No. 2 seed enjoying extra rest and home-field advantage in the divisional round, to a No. 3 seed tasked with surviving wild-card weekend before having to win road games against hard-finishing Kansas City and likely Baltimore just to reach the Super Bowl.
One step at a time. Let’s see how the Patriots match up with the Titans in the second game of Saturday’s AFC playoff doubleheader:
Tennessee: (+5) at New England, 8:15 p.m., CBS
Tennessee 12th offense, 21st defense, 23rd schedule, +6 turnover margin
New England: 15th offense, first defense, 30th schedule, +21 turnover margin
A few red flags in there for the Patriots. They faced a very weak schedule, according to the market-respected rankings of Jeff Sagarin of USA Today. The offense may not have cracked the top 20 against a league-average slate. And, a plus-21 turnover margin is much easier to earn against a soft schedule than it is to maintain against playoff-caliber opponents — particularly if the two stiffest challenges are road games.
The Patriots opened as favorites of -5¹/₂. Early money was on the underdog Titans. The line dipped to five by midweek, and has been bouncing back and forth since. It’s telling that sharps didn’t wait to see if the public might drive the number up to six. Pro bettors don’t sense square enthusiasm after last week’s stunner.
- The case for New England: Though the offense has been a big disappointment compared to past standards, the defense easily could drive a one-sided victory. It ranked first in the league in fewest yards allowed during the regular season. And, it could force miscues from high-risk, high-reward quarterback Ryan Tannehill. That creates potential for cheap Patriots points off takeaways. Experience matters in the playoffs. Fundamentals clearly favor New England.
- The case for Tennessee: Obviously the Patriots aren’t in great form. Tennessee has been playing its best ball of the season since handing the offensive reins to Tannehill. The Titans are coming in with nothing to lose, and would love to set a tone for the franchise’s future direction with a huge road playoff victory over a legendary franchise.
Nobody would be shocked if New England got knocked off. Much of the country was saying that last January when the Chargers came to visit. New England led 35-7 at halftime.
Bettors will have to decide if the Belichick/Brady combo still has that extra gear, or we already have passed the beginning of the end to the most dominant era in NFL history.
