Once upon a time in sports handicapping, the phrase, “You can’t handicap turnovers” was a maxim.
Variations included: “Turnovers are random,” “Nothing you can do about turnovers,” and, “How was I supposed to know so-and-so was going to turn the ball over five times?”
It was the go-to excuse for people who just lost a bet or TV pundits who made a bad pregame pick.
The two teams playing Sunday at MetLife Stadium might have done more to change that misconception than anybody. With Patriots at Jets (CBS, 1 p.m.), you’ll be watching two ends of the turnover spectrum. Look at these NFL rankings in turnover differential dating back to 2010:
Turnover differential rankings
| Year | Patriots | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 1st | 7th |
| 2011 | 3rd | 19th |
| 2012 | 1st | 29th |
| 2013 | 4th | 30th |
| 2014 | 2nd | 29th |
| 2015 | 5th | 6th |
| 2016 | 3rd | 31st |
| 2017 | 11th | 23rd |
| 2018 | 9th | 26th |
New England was in the top five for seven straight seasons before the league started to catch up. The Jets had a couple of good years, but mostly have been horrendous.
This has been a hallmark of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. New England’s consistency proved turnovers couldn’t be completely random! It’s amazing how many in the field of analytics were spouting the myth as recently as a few years ago.
There’s no way to know exactly how many turnovers any team will commit in a short 60-minute sample size. But “turnover potential” as a skill set is very easy to recognize.
For offenses that want to avoid committing turnovers:
- Throwing short passes to open receivers is much safer than throwing downfield into traffic.
- Quick-release-passing approaches are better than giving the pass rush time to hit your quarterback and knock the ball loose (a theme of this past Monday’s Chiefs-Rams thriller).
- Experienced quarterbacks are usually better than rookies and inexperienced passers.
For defenses that want to force turnovers:
- Aggressively attacking is better than sitting back “to keep everything in front of you.”
- Blitzing is better than running a “prevent.”
When evaluating game conditions, turnovers are more likely to happen in bad weather than good weather, and in wind rather than calm. For in-game betting, turnovers are more likely to happen to teams who must pursue high-risk approaches when playing from behind than to conservative teams who can sit on a lead.
It’s common sense really. Just for fun, run through the Sunday schedule to see if you can anticipate which teams will have an edge in the turnover category. Focus on quarterback styles, opposing defensive tendencies, weather conditions and the potential for implosions from teams forced to play from behind. It might open your eyes to potential edges you weren’t seeing before.
