Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies enters Friday’s showdown with the Miami Marlins with numbers that typically do not translate to a 6-1 record. Nola has a 4.89 ERA, has given up four walks every nine innings and has a 1.51 WHIP while allowing three or more runs in five out of his past seven starts. He has been helped by his team averaging over 6.5 runs per game in his starts, as the Phillies are 9-6 when he takes the mound.

His counterpart, Sandy Alcantara, has a 3-6 record despite a 3.73 ERA with 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. But the Marlins are averaging fewer than 2.8 runs per game in his starts.

Nola is 12-3 to the Over this season, and Alcantara has seen five of his past seven starts go Under. Something has got to give, and the setting might be the deciding factor. The Phillies had played 21 of their 37 home games Under the total entering Thursday, and the Marlins were 62.5 percent to the Under on the road.

The play: Phillies-Marlins, Under 8¹/₂ runs.