Playoff thrills continue Wednesday night with the American League wild-card Game featuring the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Oakland A’s. Wednesday’s winner will advance to face the AL and World Series-favorite Houston Astros in a best-of-five series set to begin Friday.
Some sportsbooks delayed posting game odds earlier this week until Oakland confirmed its starting pitcher. Others assumed it would be left-hander Sean Manaea, who missed five months of the season recovering from shoulder surgery. He’s been virtually unhittable in September (ERA of 1.21 and a 4-0 record in his five starts).
Manaea initially went up at low betting limits in the range of -130 to -140 against Rays’ ace Charlie Morton. Morton posted a full-season ERA of 3.05, striking out 30.4 percent of opposing hitters. Be sure you monitor game day pricing in what could be an active market.
When studying the overall National League playoff picture yesterday, we looked at a few key offensive categories. It’s tougher to get a read in the AL because there was such a big difference this year between the “haves” and “have nots.” League powers could do everything at a high level. Tankers couldn’t do anything.
Perhaps isolating how playoff teams did against their own class will be more helpful. Here’s how all five AL playoff teams performed against opponents that finished the season at .500 or better (data from Baseball-Reference):
- Records vs. opponents at .500 or better: Yankees 43-32 (.573), A’s 35-27 (.564), Astros 35-28 (.556), Rays 38-35 (.521), Twins 32-37 (.464).
Wow, the A’s could be a live ’dog through the rest of the brackets if they can survive the Rays. Yankees fans surely noticed the big edge enjoyed by the Bronx Bombers over the Twins in that data set. More on that Friday when VSiN discusses the series opener.
Houston may be more vulnerable than is reflected in betting markets. Though, its frontline starting pitching (Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Gerrit Cole) will intimidate any opponent. And, Houston’s record versus other elites probably would have been better if Greinke had been an Astro all season.
Here are William Hill’s current odds to win the AL pennant with win percentage equivalents in parentheses (sportsbooks build a universe larger than 100 percent to create a house edge).
- Odds to win AL: Astros -110 (52 percent), Yankees 9/5 (36 percent), Twins 7/1 (13 percent), A’s 17/2 (11 percent), Rays 12/1 (8 percent).
The Yankees have nudged closer to the Astros since the last time we discussed pennant odds. That’s likely a reflection of facing the less dynamic divisional-round opponent.
Looking ahead to the World Series, top favorites at William Hill are still Astros 2/1 (33 percent), Dodgers 12/5 (29 percent), and Yankees 7/2 (22 percent).
If you’re thinking of placing futures bets, remember that “rollover” parlays often yield higher profits. Simply place the planned stake on your team to win its first series (or wild-card game if you’re planning to ride the A’s or Rays), then keep reinvesting the full return as you go.
