Logo

Outhouse meets penthouse in Week 4 of “Monday Night Football” as the 0-3 Atlanta Falcons travel to Lambeau Field to face the 3-0 Green Bay Packers.

Atlanta has blown leads of 15 points or greater two weeks in a row. Two weeks ago, in Dallas, Atlanta led 39-24 with 7:57 left to play. Last week, the Falcons led the 26-10 over the Chicago Bears with 6:21 to play and once again could not make the lead stand up.

It does not get any easier for the Falcons having to go and face Green Bay, which leads the NFL in yards per play (6.9). The Packers also sit atop the NFL in scoring offense (40.7 ppg) and are second in rushing offense (171.7 ypg). The balanced Green Bay offense has been a machine in the first three games as it has become the first team in NFL history to score at least 35 points and have zero turnovers in each of those games, per Elias Sports Bureau.

Both teams are dealing with their own injury issues especially in the receiving corps. Julio Jones missed last week for Atlanta with a hamstring injury and Calvin Ridley led the Falcons with five catches for 110 yards in the loss vs. Chicago but has been dealing with a bum ankle this week. Green Bay was without Davante Adams (hamstring) in its 37-30 win in New Orleans last Sunday night. Allen Lazard was also put on IR this week with a core muscle injury. All receivers, except Lazard, have been listed as questionable for Monday night.

The injuries do not stop for either club at the receiving corps. Atlanta could be without as many as three starters in the secondary with safeties Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal already ruled out and rookie first-round corner A.J. Terrell out with COVID-19. Green Bay also could be without starting linebackers Rashan Gary and Za’Darius Smith.

Julio JonesAPJulio JonesAP

Nevertheless, the line has moved slightly in Atlanta’s favor as +7.5 showed earlier in the week and has since come down to +7 and even as low as +6.5 at a few shops. This looks like a mismatch on paper, but Green Bay is off a big win on “Sunday Night Football” in New Orleans and has a showdown looming in Tampa next week with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

The seat continues to get warmer for Falcons coach Dan Quinn. This could end up being the proverbial “Pros vs. Joes” as the professional bettors are giving the “Dirty Birds” one more shot while the betting public will be all over the Packers on straight bets, parlays and teasers.

The total opened as the highest number on the Week 4 board at 58 and remains with that distinction despite the number coming down to 57 and even as low as 56.5. This is likely due to the injuries to so many skill position players on both rosters. The trends indicate an Over series between these two as the last five meetings with these teams, dating back to 2014, all have gone over the total with an average combined score of 64.2 ppg. Both clubs have also gone over the posted totals in each of their three games this season.

Going into Sunday’s action, the Overs had hit at a 61.2 percent (30-19) clip against the closing number and had eclipsed the totals by an average of 4.76 ppg. The averaged combined score during the 2019 season was 45.6 ppg and is now 51.0 ppg through three weeks and a Week 4 Thursday night game.

Lack of spectators due to COVID-19 has of course reduced the crowd noise. That reduction in crowd noise has also benefitted the offenses more than the defenses as there have been less false start penalties (1.8 per game vs. 2.2 in 2019) and an increase in defensive pass interference penalties (1.5 per game vs. 1.2 in 2019). The offensive holding penalties have also dropped from 2.7 per game in 2019 to just 1.6 thus far this season as a lack of crowd noise allow the guys up front to hear audibles better from their quarterbacks.

Eventually, the oddsmakers will adjust the totals upwards enough to attract more bets on the Under but it certainly has not happened thus far in three weeks of NFL action.

Comments
anonymous profile image
Powered by RoundtableBuilt on infrastructure designed for real-time media. Learn more at RTB.io.© Roundtable 2026. By using this site you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy