Like the rest of the Red Sox, it’s been a pretty disappointing season for Nathan Eovaldi, who enters Monday’s contest with a 4-3 record, 4.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and it’s only getting worse.

Since returning from the IL, Eovaldi has allowed 16 earned runs on 23 hits and four walks in 13 innings over three starts. That’s good enough for an 11.08 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. And while his 4.53 xFIP in that span implies that Eovaldi has been unfortunate and ineffective, it’s not like this stretch is all that surprising.

Per StatCast, Eovaldi ranks in the ninth percentile in hard hit rate, 14th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 12th percentile in barrel rate. Batters are squaring up the Red Sox right-hander at an alarming rate. In fact, only two pitchers in the MLB (min. 70 innings pitched) boast a worse home runs per nine innings than Eovaldi this season.

Eovaldi still does a terrific job limiting walks, but his inability to suppress hard contact and terrible form is a recipe for disaster against an Astros offense that ranks third in the MLB in home runs and fifth in slugging percentage.

Luis Garcia has been up and down for Houston this season, but his 3.63 xFIP suggests he’s got some positive regression coming his way. And even though Garcia, too, struggles to keep the ball in the yard, his batted-ball data is much more encouraging than Eovaldi’s.

This game has plenty of blow-out potential, so there’s some value on Houston to win by multiple runs.

The Play: Astros, -1.5 runs.