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Having broken down my statistical modeling strategy for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, we can now begin to share some picks.

This week, I’ve identified four markets — a top-10, a top-20, a top-30 and a top-40 — that give bettors good value. In addition to considering the output of various statistical models, I also considered how players performed at this event and at certain correlated courses — TPC Scottsdale and TPC Deere Run are paramount.

Without further delay, let’s dive into my four best derivative bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Although Zalatoris finished 77th in 2021 at this event, there are positives to consider.

On the first two days of the tournament, the Wake Forest product opened with a 70-68 to enter the weekend at -6. But, a 74-76 finish left him at even par for the tournament. Given his modeling output, I believe it’s more likely we see the former scores.

Over the last 24 qualifying rounds, Zalatoris rates out fifth overall in the field. The only major category in which he struggles is good drives gained (58th in the field), but he’s otherwise brilliant in the key metrics.

He’s eighth in SG: Approach, fourth in GIRs gained and third in birdies or better gained. Further, he’s 11th in the field in SG: Par 5’s and seventh in the field in SG: Par 4’s – 350 to 400 yards.

Plus, it’s worth noting that if you consider a broader sample size, Zalatoris’s output improves. Over his last 50 qualifying rounds, he’s 23rd in good drives gained, second on approach and third in birdies or better gained.

Further, Zalatoris owns a solid finish at a correlated course — 17th at the Waste Management in 2021 — so his game should fit Detroit Golf Club well. Emerging from an off-week after the Open, back Zalatoris up to +170 for a top-10 finish.

Homa doesn’t own the *best* course history in Detroit, but he checks all the boxes as a contender this week.

Last year, Homa finished in a tie for 25th two years after he grabbed a T-42nd finish here. But in his last three starts at TPC Scottsdale, Homa owns two top-14 finishes, including a T-6th in 2020.

In terms of his statistical modeling, Homa is steady across the board. He’s sixth in the field in my 50-round model, second overall in my 24-round projection and ninth over his last 12 rounds.

In terms of his best statistical output — the 24-round model — Homa does show some concern in that he’s 70th in good drives gained. However, he’s simultaneously seventh on approach, 14th in birdies or better gained, fourth on SG: Par 5’s and eighth on SG: Par 4’s – 350 to 400 yards.

Plus, it’s worth noting that Homa’s driving has improved recently. Over his last 12 rounds, he’s 27th in the field in good drives gained. Additionally, in his last 12 rounds in which fairways are either “easy” or “average” to hit, Homa sits 11th in the field in birdies or better gained.

For those reasons, back Homa up to +110 for a top-20 finish.

Kirk is a historical wizard on Donald Ross designs, making him a perfect player to buy this week.

Over his last 12 rounds on Ross designs, Kirk is third in the field in SG: Total, including ninth in SG: T2G and 18th in SG: Putting. Expand the sample to his last 24 rounds on Ross designs and bettors will find Kirk jumps up to ninth in SG: Putting while ranking 10th in bogey avoidance.

Recent results have not been kind to Kirk — he failed to notch a top-30 finish at both the Open Championship and Scottish Open — but the prior tournaments give me hope. In the four preceding tournaments to hopping across the Pond, Kirk notched three top-20 finishes. Plus, the Georgia product was T-14th at the Waste Management this year.

As for his modeling output, Kirk is steady across the board. Although he’s 54th on approach, he’s no worse than 19th in proximity between 100-125 and 125-150 yards. Plus, he’s 11th in good drives gained, so there’s a case for positive regression with Kirk. All told, Kirk is 10th overall in my 24-round model and jumps up to second overall in my 50-round projection.

Given Kirk owns a T-12th and a T-21st in his last two starts at Detroit Golf Club, I’ll play him up to +110 for a top-30 finish.

Hubbard missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage last year, but finished 12th in 2020. This time around, I believe the latter is more likely.

Over his last 24 qualifying rounds, Hubbard paces the field in that particular model. In that span, he’s second on approach — including 24th or better in both proximity categories — and ranks 16th in GIRs gained.

From there, Hubbard is what I would describe as “reliable” in the remaining categories. He’s 28th in birdies or better gained, 30th on Par 5’s, 26th on Par 4’s between 350 and 400 yards and 25th or better in both putting metrics.

Additionally, over his last 12 rounds on non-difficult to hit fairways, Hubbard ranks sixth in the field in SG: Total and sits 17th in SG: Putting. Further, Hubbard rises to third overall in SG: Total on courses with “easy” scoring conditions. He also has two top-30 finishes in his last two starts at TPC Scottsdale to pair with his 2020 success in Detroit.

Given he also ranks second overall in my 12-round projection, I would play Hubbard up to +100 for a top-40 finish.