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If you only heard the small details, it might’ve seemed like Tony Finau turned a corner at the 3M Open on Sunday afternoon, parlaying a five-stroke 54-hole deficit into a four-shot win, thanks to a final-round 67. A player known more for his near-misses and close calls over the years, this would sound like the antithesis of a typical Finau finish without knowing the particulars.

Anyone who watched, though, understands it wasn’t so easy.

After charging hard with three straight birdies on holes 14 through 16 — and with some help from erstwhile leader Scott Piercy — Finau found himself in the lead, literally checking a leaderboard and seeing it for the first time on the 16th green. His tee shot on the par-3 17th flew the green and caromed off a tower behind it, remaining in play by mere feet as a water hazard loomed nearby.

Finau made par from there, gave his ball a little kiss, then kissed it goodbye on the 18th tee, pushing his drive on the par-5 to the right and into the water. He salvaged bogey, and it’s a credit to his work in the preceding holes that he owned such a cushion to cruise to a closing bogey and the victory.

As it turns out, with fewer than nine holes remaining in the final round, Finau was only about half the price in betting markets as his opening number, which had him as the betting favorite at right around 11/1 in most books.

Finau became just the third pre-tourney favorite to win a PGA Tour event this season, joining Sam Burns at the Sanderson Farms Championship (tough one to remember there) and Jon Rahm at the Mexico Open (much easier) as the chalk cashes.

A few years ago (prior to the 2019 U.S. Open), I wrote a piece examining what would’ve happened if you’d have wagered one unit on every favorite during the entire season. As it turns out, only two campaigns would have been profitable — 2012, when a half-dozen different favorites combined for nine titles; and 2013, when Tiger Woods was responsible for five of the seven wins from the oddsmaker pole position.

It’s more difficult to quantify whether more of these victories over the years occurred in “big” events or “smaller” ones, as such classification is purely subjective, though a quick perusal suggests that a larger number have taken place in the latter, very much like Finau’s victory at the 3M this past weekend.

That might not mean there’s always more value in playing favorites at events with somewhat inferior fields, but it inherently favors those in these types of events. To use the previous two weeks as a comparison, you’d probably want Finau at the 3M more often than Rory McIlroy at a similar pre-tourney price at The Open Championship, where he’ll face much stiffer competition.

It would be nice and tidy if these last few paragraphs led seamlessly into me picking this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic favorite, Patrick Cantlay (10/1), but life and tournament previews don’t always work out that way. But I won’t go too far down the board for my favorite outright. Here are two best bets, with odds from BetMGM.

It’s about damn time. I mean, really.

Zalatoris is ranked 13th in the world ranking. He owns three runner-up finishes in majors. Three runner-up finishes this year. He’s been inside the top-six on leaderboards more often during the last four months than he’s finished outside that number.

As he said after the U.S. Open, “I’d pay a lot of money for about an inch and a half, and I’d probably be a three-time major champion at this point.”

He’s not wrong. Sometimes all it takes is some goodwill from the Golf Gods to claim such an elusive victory. We saw that from Finau this weekend, his good break not only coming in the form of that carom staying in play but none of the other contenders being ready to pounce on the final few holes.

Whether it’s karma or the law of averages or just a week when he outplays everyone else, at some point, Willy Z. will be afforded the same type of result.

On a track where bombing and gouging might not be the worst strategy, I like it to be this week. That’s not to say there aren’t some negatives at play. Zalatoris’ putting stroke is still a bit untrustworthy, especially in high-pressure situations. He’s played some of his better golf when scoring conditions are more challenging than the 18-under, which won here last year.

Here’s what we’ve learned about Kitayama this year: When he’s good, he’s really good. And when he’s not, well, he’s really not. In 17 starts, he owns three top-three finishes but also has 10 missed cuts. Look, it’s better to be an all-or-nothing type at the professional level than one who consistently finishes in 25th place every week, and it’s better to bet on these types, too. At least there’s some equity in backing Kitayama for another significant result.