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Monday’s MLB action kicks off with the final game of a four-game AL Central series between the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals. The Guardians’ offense broke wide open with 17 runs on Sunday. Will the total go Over again on Monday? 

The Guardians project to hit righties respectably this season, so against Carlos Hernandez, I think they can follow up Sunday’s massive offensive breakthrough with another productive day. Hernandez finished with a favorable 3.68 ERA last season, with an expected ERA of 4.35. Both of those marks were vast improvements from his previous season, when Hernandez posted a 7.30 xERA with a concerning 12.5 BB percent. 

Throughout spring training, Hernandez looked to live more so in the zone, but was pounded allowing five home runs and a lot of hard hit balls on route to a 14.73 ERA through 7 ¹/₃ innings. 

On the other hand, Aaron Civale will take the mound for the Guardians, and it’s reasonable to think that what could be a sneakily decent Royals lineup can hit him and put together a solid offensive day. Civale took a step backward at age 26 last season, pitching to a xERA of 4.79 and an XWOBA of .334. 

Even if conditions aren’t ideal for a ton of carry at Kauffman Stadium, we should see a lot of contact and another long day for pitchers involved in this one. I see an edge on the Over 8.5 up to -120 odds. 

The play: Over 8.5 (-120)