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The Ottawa Senators are an underdog bettor’s best friend.
While the Senators have endured another brutal season, no team in the NHL punches up quite like Ottawa. Since the beginning of last season, DJ Smith’s side is 30-44 when it has closed as an underdog of +150 or longer. Sitting 14 games under .500 may not scream “Must Bet!”, but consider this: If you had bet $100 every time the Sens were in this spot, you’d have profited $1,340 for an 18% ROI. Not too shabby.
The Senators are currently +185 underdogs against the Nashville Predators on Tuesday night. A few weeks ago that may have seemed like a pretty daunting task, but the truth is that Nashville has begun to wobble over the dog days of winter.
How to watch Senators vs. Predators
Gametime: 8 p.m. est.
TV Channel: Fox Sports Tennessee
Live streaming NHL: ESPN+, NHL.TV
Senators vs. Predators prediction
Through the first 50 games of the season, Nashville ranked ninth in goals allowed, seventh in expected goals against, and second in high-danger chances conceded at 5-on-5. The Preds were doing a great job in front of Saros, and Saros returned the favor by posting a .922 save percentage and a +14.4 Goals Saved Above Expected in that span.
If the Preds were to keep up that pace, they’d be the proverbial “team nobody wants to play” in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Unfortunately, things have gone awry in Nashville’s defensive zone over the past few weeks.
Ottowa Senators captain Brady Tkachuk Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesOver their last 16 games, the Predators sit 16th in goals allowed, 15th in expected goals against and 11th in high-danger chances conceded at 5-on-5. It’s not surprising that Saros’ game has also slipped in that span as the diminutive Finn has a .909 save percentage and a -0.71 GSAx in his last 13 appearances.
The good news for the Predators is that their defensive dip in form has coincided with an uptick in scoring. Nashville is averaging 3.05 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over its last 16 games, which is good enough for the sixth-best mark in the NHL over that time period. This offensive surge does seem too good to be true, however, as the Predators are outscoring their xG output by 0.85 goals per 60. At some point, you’d expect that number to regress.
Speaking of regression: Ottawa’s offense has been dormant over its current 2-5-1 stretch, but the Sens should be able to bank on some bounces going their way at some point as their 1.72 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 lags behind their 2.57 expected goals.
It’s never a bad idea to take a shot on the Senators as a big underdog, especially when you get to do it against a team that is trending in the wrong direction.
NHL pick: Senators +185 ML vs. Predators (BetMGM)
