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Week 7 is not short on headliners, but you could argue that the most important game on the docket will come on Friday night when No. 24 South Florida (4-1) travels to North Texas (5-0).
The Bulls vaulted back into the top 25 with a runaway win over Charlotte in Week 6, while the Mean Green are knocking on the door in the polls with their unblemished record.
A win over South Florida would almost certainly put North Texas into the top 25 for the first time since 1959.
The winner of this showdown will get a huge boost in its chances of gatecrashing the College Football Playoff, while the loser will essentially be eliminated.
North Texas is a 1.5-point favorite over USF on Friday evening.
The Over/Under is set at 67.5 and climbing.
South Florida vs. North Texas odds, prediction
The beautiful city of Denton, Texas, will be painted green for one of the biggest games in program history.
It’s appropriate that this showdown is taking place on a Friday night, given the region’s love for high school football.
But it isn’t just the home-field advantage that pushes us towards the Mean Green on Friday night.
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There are some strong signals in the numbers and the stylistic matchup that make North Texas an intriguing favorite Friday.
The first number that jumps off the page at you is that North Texas ranks fifth in points per game (43.3) and 23rd in yards per play (6.4).
There is some noise in those numbers thanks to a 51-0 blowout of Lamar, but underestimate this offense at your own peril, especially against a USF defense that doesn’t boast great numbers, especially against the pass.
Drew Mestemaker of North Texas. Danny Wild-Imagn ImagesThe Mean Green defense, on the other hand, has been terrific against the pass, even when you adjust the numbers for peculiar matchups against Lamar and Army.
South Florida has been terrific this season with wins over Boise State and Florida, but everything in the numbers suggests that North Texas is right there with the Bulls.
Throw in home-field advantage, and you’ve got enough to push you towards a bet on the Mean Green on Friday night.
The Play: North Texas (-110, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
