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The NBA Draft gets underway on Thursday night at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN, as 60 young men will get a chance to achieve a lifelong dream of playing professional basketball. This draft figures to be a deep one in terms of talent but if you somehow disagree, take a look at the line movement of which player will get selected first overall pick.
On Wednesday, I wrote a piece that profiled the three likely contenders that could go number one. At that time, Auburn’s Jabari Smith was the odds-on-favorite at -250. However, I opted to fade Smith and recommended a play on Duke’s Paolo Banchero at +240. In less than 24 hours, Banchero moved to the -175 favorite.
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The odds are continuing to shift, with Jabari Smith a -1100 favorite to go first and Banchero +400.
Today we’ll examine whether Banchero still has value at that price, and I’ll preview a few more selections I added to my draft betting card.
Paolo Banchero to go first overall: 0.5 units (+300)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Banchero’s climb to the top of the betting board is an old-fashioned steam move. Bookmakers won’t move odds this aggressively simply on air. This line move is based on the information and respected money that’s come in on Banchero.
This type of line move in a draft is generally spot-on but there are clearly smoke and mirrors going on here. At +300, it is worth a small bet to see who is truly playing the right side of the game.
The small play here is on Banchero, otherwise, it’s a pass.
Holmgren, 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, should hear his name called early Thursday evening. Getty ImagesChet Holmgren to go second overall (-550)
At current odds, this is not worth a bet. A few days ago, he could’ve been had a -135 which is a great bet considering Oklahoma City has long been rumored to draft the lanky center from Gonzaga.
If Paolo truly is drafted by the Magic, which is far from a certainty, it shouldn’t really affect the way that Oklahoma City drafts. The Thunder are still in a rebuild and would have rather a project with upside like Holmgren rather than Smith or Banchero who are viewed as immediate contributors to their teams.
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Last week a report surfaced that Holmgren saw himself as a better fit with the Oklahoma City Thunder than the Orlando Magic. And it’s Oklahoma City that holds the second pick in this draft.
Holmgren is too good to pass up if he’s available for the Thunder. He has a unique skill set as a seven-foot ball-handler who can do it all on the court. His style of play also suits the Thunder as he’s able to provide tremendous floor-spacing while also being a threat on the perimeter.
Jabari Smith to go third overall: 1 unit (+700)
I don’t think any team could go wrong with either of the top three players in this draft. Thus, the Rockets shouldn’t have any problem taking the best overall player when it’s their turn.
Given how things could shake out, it’s crazy to think that the Rockets could end up with a player that many had atop their leaderboard heading into this draft.
Jabari Smith Getty ImagesAs a result, I don’t see how the Rockets will be able to pass up on Jabari Smith if he’s available with the third overall pick.
Jaden Ivey to go fifth overall: 0.5 units (+350)
If we project Keegan Murray to go fourth overall, then we have to like Jaden Ivey to be the next name off the board with the Detroit Pistons holding the fifth pick.
This would make a ton of sense because it keeps Ivey in the Midwest area. Ivey played his college ball at Purdue, and he’ll be very familiar with playing in Michigan from his days in the Big Ten conference.
