VSiN’s “Bet Smart” will focus on Super Bowl betting strategies the next four days. Today, we focus on mistakes to avoid when choosing among the countless propositions (or “props”) that consistently trip up recreational bettors.

Volume

Squares bet way too many props. They get caught up in the excitement of the biggest betting event on the sports calendar. They don’t want to be seen amongst their friends as the wimp that was only rooting for a side or total. As a result, they create much more exposure than is appropriate for their level of expertise. Too many bets … too much money placed per bet.

Sure, a great day feels like a jackpot. But, a bad day that would have been 0-1 or 0-2 is suddenly 3-9 or 5-13, losing money that couldn’t afford to be lost. Squares have more bad days than great days, particularly when playing a bunch of leans. Even if a square has one good Super Sunday, over the course of a few years there’s likely to be at least one debacle.

Overloading an Opinion

Squares often have a “vision” of how the game is going to play out, then load up extra bets on that opinion. If they love a team, they bet that team to have big numbers in its props, and place extra bets on individual players to have great games. This can create the kind of debacle we just discussed, or it can also turn a winning day into a losing day.

A year ago, many Patriots backers expected an offensive explosion indoors on a fast track against the Rams. New England (-2) got the money, but only in a 13-3 victory.

Football gets complicated when championships are on the line. It’s hard to be right about everything.

Multiple Options

Squares are prone to bet multiple options for “MVP” or “Player to Score the First Touchdown.” It might feel safer to spread your risk among a few different choices. But, that’s just watering down your position against odds that are stacked against you anyway.

As VSiN has discussed often, you’re never getting “true” odds on these because of the house edge. Spreading your bets among three different players then worsens your position from “something-to-one” to “something-to-three.” If you bet three different players to win the MVP, you’re guaranteed to be wrong at least twice. You might miss them all.

Taking bad prices

Squares repeatedly take the worst of major line moves by jumping in too late. They agree with the initial move, and figure the line won’t matter because they have an easy winner. Some straggler bets may win. But, the smart bet was against the opener, or the earliest numbers. Value is typically gone after a line has settled. Sharps betting early earn more easy winners than squares betting late.

Bottom line for props: Focus less on feeding your ego … focus more on making smart bets.