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The Buffalo Bills travel to Chicago to face the Bears on Christmas Eve. The Bills are a hefty road favorite in this matchup, with the total just north of 40. 

The total is what stands out to me. This number feels a little low for the 2022 edition of the Chicago Bears. The Bears had gone over in seven consecutive games until last week versus the Eagles. However, that’s because the number was 48. The two teams scored a combined 45 points. As a matter of fact, Chicago games have gone over 40 points in 10 of 12 since Week 3 and eight straight overall. 

Bills vs. Bears (1 p.m. ET, CBS) pick: Over 40.5 points scored (BetMGM)

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The reason for the high-scoring affairs in Chicago games is simple: Quarterback Justin Fields has ignited the offense, while the defense can’t stop a nosebleed. The Bears are allowing 25.6 ppg, which ranks 30th in the NFL

Things are about to get worse for Chicago’s defense with Josh Allen and Co. coming to town. The Bills rank second in total offense and fourth in scoring offense, putting up an average of 27.5 points. They should find little resistance from a Bears defense that has given up 25 points or more in seven straight games.

Betting on the NFL?

Weather could play a factor on Saturday, and that is baked into the number. However, I expect enough points to be scored to get over this modest total. 

Bills vs. Bears (1 p.m. ET, CBS) pick: Over 40.5 points scored (BetMGM)

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