Can the Portland Trail Blazers keep winning with house money? Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and company enter their third straight series as underdogs Tuesday night when they visit the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals (ESPN, 9 p.m.).
They weren’t supposed to get anywhere near this far after losing impact player Jusuf Nurkic to injury in late March. In the playoffs:
- Portland was in the range of +130 and up to advance past the Thunder in the first round, even though the Blazers had earned home-court advantage in the series. And, many pundits liked Oklahoma City at market prices because of all the intangibles Russell Westbrook supposedly brings to crunch-time basketball. Lillard crunch-timed the Thunder out of the bracket in five games.
- Portland also was in the range of +130 and up in the second round against the Nuggets. Though, that soared up to +200 or +210 before Sunday’s Game 7 at altitude at Denver. This time it was McCollum who carried the team on his back with 37 points on 17-of-29 from the floor in the clincher.
- Portland opened at a whopping +375 in the Western finals against Golden State at the Westgate in Las Vegas minutes after the upset of Denver ended.
Accounting for vigorish, Portland was a shade over 40 percent pre-series to survive each of the first two matchups. The market has them at less than 20 percent to upset the Warriors.
Many NBA observers considered the second-round series featuring Golden State and the Rockets as the “true” Western Conference championship. Based on raw talent, those were the two best teams. Betting markets agreed.
Golden State was priced from -5 to -6 in its three home games versus Houston, with Kevin Durant healthy at tipoff each time. Golden State opened at -7.5 in Game 1 of the actual Western finals, and was immediately bet up to -8 even though Durant was out of the lineup. That suggests the Warriors might have been as high as -10 over Portland with Durant.
VSiN’s Jonathan Von Tobel (“The Edge,” weekdays at 3 p.m.) and I have updated our estimated “market” Power Ratings based on the early Game 1 lines of Golden State -8 over Portland, and Milwaukee -6¹/₂ over Toronto. Our neutral-court numbers: Golden State 88 (no Durant), Milwaukee 88, Toronto 85, Portland 83.
What must Portland do to extend its amazing run?
- Shoot better from long range. Lillard’s “Steph Curry impression” in the first round led to erratic shooting versus Denver. Portland posted 3-point marks of 11-of-29, 9-of-29, 12-of-42 (in four OTs), 10-of-37 and 4-of-26 in five of their second-round games. That while getting outrebounded five times in seven contests. Not going to work when stepping up in class.
- Hope Golden State comes in overconfident. The Warriors are at their worst when they don’t respect an opponent. Turnover counts shoot up. Defense softens. And the team relies too much on fickle 3-point shooting. Wednesday, we’ll take a closer look at Toronto-Milwaukee in the Eastern Finals.
