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Before the Giants and Diamondbacks play the second of a three-game set tonight, Collin Whitchurch of The Action Network is here to share his best bet (video above).

Even though the Diamondbacks have won three of four against their divisional foes this season, Whitchurch isn’t looking to back a side. Rather, his betting interest lies with the total, which is currently set at eight runs.

For Whitchurch, the matchup presents an opportunity to fade Diamondbacks starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel.

“[Keuchel] has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his 11 starts this year and six or more earned runs in four of 11 starts,” Whitchurch says.

Plus, even though there’s room for some positive regression with Keuchel based on his current ERA, his expected numbers are still sub-par. Entering tonight’s matchup, Keuchel has an xERA of 4.49.

Given the Giants offense ranks 12th in the league in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, Whitchurch expects they’ll have no problem getting to Keuchel at home.

On the flip-side, Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has proved solid this year but does have some room for negative regression.

Entering tonight’s start, Webb holds a 2.98 ERA, but his xERA and xFIP both clock in above 3.30. Plus, Webb’s strikeout rate is down six percent year-over-year, so Whitchurch believes the Diamondbacks will be able to scratch home a few runs off Webb.

As a result, Whitchurch is recommending bettors take the total over eight runs (-105) on BetMGM for tonight’s matchup in San Francisco.