Are Kyrie Irving’s Brooklyn Nets overrated?

If you accept the premise that point spreads determine how teams are “rated” because they reflect a large composite of informed opinion, they might be. Brooklyn is 0-3 against the spread thus far in the 2019-20 NBA season heading into Wednesday night’s game vs. the Indiana Pacers at Barclays Center.

The monkey wrench for analysts is that Brooklyn spent many days during the preseason on the other side of the world. It’s possible that betting markets are underrating the impact of global jet lag rather than overrating Nets’ talent. (Note that the NBA tried to schedule overseas games earlier this preseason because past Asian visitors had started the season sluggishly.)

Whatever the cause, it hasn’t been an auspicious start:

The Nets were favored in all three games, but own only a close win over the Knicks. New York and Memphis have been priced among the worst teams in the league, so it’s been an easy schedule.

A clear issue so far has been 3-point defense. The Nets are allowing a stunning 43.6 percent on 3s, about 10 percentage points higher than the league midpoint. That’s the same as allowing 65.4 percent on 2-point shots.

Irving’s traditionally sketchy defense or team jet lag could be factors (as well as blind, stupid luck in a small three-game sample size). Bettors should monitor opponents’ 3-point shooting in coming days. Don’t bet on Brooklyn until this improves.

While 3-point defense has been a problem, overall defense grades out better than you were probably expecting. Brooklyn plays at one of the faster paces in the league — 107.5 possessions per 48 minutes according to nba.com. Scoreboards inflate because both teams are taking more shots.

Also, playing two overtimes added 10 extra minutes of raw scoring potential. When you adjust for possessions, Brooklyn grades out near league average in defensive efficiency. You can deduce that the Nets are performing well at 2-point defense. Their 47.1 percent allowed is in the top quadrant league-wide.

Whether you’re focused exclusively on handicapping/betting the Nets and Knicks, or you’re tackling the entire league, it would be a good idea to start building team skill-set profiles from widely available reference sites. It’s not enough to know who’s covering and who isn’t. Winners understand why.

Which teams are fast, and which are slow? Which deny open looks and which are easily broken down with sharp passing? Which own the boards and which get bullied? Which have the depth to deal with injuries, or “load management” with key starters?

If you focus mostly on who’s “hot” or “cold,” you’ll find yourself jumping on various bandwagons at just the wrong time. Daily point spreads are based on skill sets and situational dynamics (fatigue, flat spots, etc.).

Get smart so you can bet smart!