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There are very few markets in all of sports that do hyperbole and hysteria, quite like Toronto. When the Maple Leafs are good, the parade routes are planned. But when the Leafs are bad, hoo boy, does it get ugly. 

Right now, the Maple Leafs are dealing with the latter.

The Leafs, who came into the season as the second favorite to win the Stanley Cup, have sputtered to a 4-4-2 start and have a -3 goal differential even though they’ve played one of the softest schedules in the NHL. Toronto has already lost to bottom-dwellers Arizona, Montreal, San Jose, and Anaheim as big favorites and will be in a similar spot against the Philadelphia Flyers, who lost to the Rangers, 1-0, in overtime on Tuesday night.

At the time of writing, the Maple Leafs are a -330 favorite over the Flyers on BetMGM.

While the Leafs have severely underwhelmed relative to their expectations, the Flyers have been a pleasant surprise with a 5-2-2 record and a +2 goal differential. Philadelphia was expected to be a contender for the Wooden Spoon, so putting 12 points in their pockets after nine games is another feather in the cap for head coach John Tortorella. 

The bad news is that Philadelphia’s modest success seems unsustainable. 

There’s no secret about how the Flyers are getting results. Goaltender Carter Hart has been spectacular, posting a .938 save percentage and a +12.6 Goals Saved Above Expected in seven games played. It’s anybody’s guess where the Flyers would be without Hart’s heroics, as the team ranks 31st in expected goals rate and high-danger scoring chance percentage at 5-on-5. Most games featuring Philadelphia have followed a pattern, the Flyers work hard in their own zone, and Hart keeps them in the game long enough to nick a point or two. 

That plan won’t work on Wednesday, as the Flyers will start rookie goaltender Felix Sandstrom in Toronto. This will be Sandstrom’s third game of the season and the eighth of his career, so it’s hard to project what kind of goaltender he’ll be on a nightly basis. We can be pretty confident he won’t be as strong as Hart, though.

And that’s a recipe for disaster since Philadelphia is bleeding scoring chances to start the season. The Flyers are second-to-last in the NHL at preventing high-danger scoring opportunities and have allowed the third-most expected goals at 5-on-5. 

There is no way that you can trust the Leafs at this price, but this is as good a spot for them to get right as you can draw up. They should be able to post a crooked number, and with their defensive play also looking spotty, a play on the over makes sense.