The Giants had fallen 14 ¹/₂ games out of first place in the NL West entering Saturday when they faced the Dodgers, who were on a six-game winning streak. The finale of a four-game series pits Alex Cobb against Clayton Kershaw on Sunday.

Though Cobb’s overall numbers are decent, given his 3-4 record and 4.09 ERA, I’ve identified a trend that should give bettors more confidence if looking to fade the Giants’ right-hander.

Over the past 30 days, the Dodgers’ offense has been the best in baseball, with a wRC+ value of 133. The Dodgers’ current lineup has 41 plate appearances against Cobb, and they’re hitting .256 with a .330 wOBA.

However, their advanced numbers caught my attention — as evidenced by a .356 xBA, .435 xWOBA, and .622 xSLG.

In contrast, the Giants will be up against a red-hot Kershaw, who hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in his past 21 ²/₃ innings. The batter versus pitcher splits also favor Kershaw — in 179 plate appearances, the Giants’ lineup is hitting .194 with a .247 wOBA against the left-hander.

I’ll be looking for the Dodgers to get off to a fast start against Cobb. According to our Action Labs database, Cobb is a woeful 0-8 against the runline in the first five innings.

The Play: Dodgers first five innings runline (-0.5 runs).