Is No. 4 Ohio State really Final Four material? The jury is still out. And the jury won’t have much evidence to study while making its decision.
Though the Buckeyes are scheduled for a 12-game regular season, followed by an appearance in the Big Ten Championship game if they win the East Division, 2018 really presents only a five-game challenge: a 40-28 victory over TCU, Saturday’s game at No. 9 Penn State, a Nov. 10 game at No. 21 Michigan State, a Nov. 24 home game vs. No. 14 Michigan, and the Dec. 1 Big Ten championship. The rest are virtual scrimmages given the caliber of opposition.
Why would we say the jury is still out given Ohio State’s double-digit win down in Texas against TCU? The Buckeyes’ defense had serious trouble with TCU’s speed and athleticism. If you didn’t read the box score two weeks ago, check out these key indicator stats:
Buckeyes’ trouble with TCU
Category Ohio St. TCU
Total yards 526 511
Yards per play 6.6 6.7
Yards per rush 4.3 5.6
Third-down rate 33% 47%
TD drives 50+ yards 2 4
All credit to the Buckeyes for winning the turnover category, 3-0, and for scoring touchdowns on a fumble return and an interception return. Ohio State also had a relatively cheap 25-yard touchdown drive in the mix. TCU’s four touchdowns came on drives of 52, 75, 84, and 93 yards. The problem is, no team can score cheap touchdowns “on command.” Nobody in the defensive huddle says, “OK … this play … let’s intercept a pass and run it all the way back.”
In the categories that teams have most control over at the point of attack, Ohio State had trouble getting meaningful clearance from TCU. That could foreshadow problems Saturday night in State College against the Nittany Lions. Penn State is very likely superior to TCU, and will be playing on its home field instead of in a spacious NFL fan-cave.
The selection committee has a few months to think about today’s question. Football bettors have to make a call immediately. Ohio State is priced at Final Four caliber Saturday night. The Buckeyes have been in the range of -3 to -3¹/₂ as a road favorite through the week. That would mean OSU is about 6-7 points better than the Nittany Lions on a neutral field.
Note that some in Vegas currently see Ohio State as inferior only to Alabama on the national landscape. Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller recently posted early odds for hypothetical national championship games. Alabama was -9¹/₂ over Ohio State, -10¹/₂ over Georgia, -11¹/₂ over Clemson and -14¹/₂ over Oklahoma.
If indicator stats from the TCU game mean anything, come Sunday morning, the college football world may be pondering whether or not Penn State is Final Four caliber.
