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On Wednesday night, the Indiana Pacers (3-4) will host the Paolo Banchero-less Orlando Magic (3-5) in an Eastern Conference matchup.
After securing an impressive road win over Dallas, the Pacers finally have their groove back after a rough 2-4 start to the 2024-25 campaign.
Will Banchero’s absence be the difference in this game or can the Magic extend their season series lead to 2-0?
Magic vs. Pacers odds
Magic vs. Pacers prediction
(7:00 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass)
If you are an avid NBA fan, you probably don’t need to be reminded about what happened the first time these two teams faced off on Oct. 28.
Banchero decimated the Pacers’ non-existent paint defense (23rd in opponent points in the paint) en route to a 50-point, 13-rebound, nine-assist outing on a sensational 16-for-26 shooting from the field.
Tyrese Haliburton leads the 3-4 Pacers on Wednesday. NBAE via Getty ImagesHowever, Banchero won’t be able to take the floor Wednesday night due to a torn oblique injury, which gives the Pacers, a somewhat undersized team, a significant break on the defensive glass.
Indiana has the second-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the league, which can hurt it in certain matchups, but the Magic (sixth-worst OREB% in their past three games) without Banchero is not one of those matchups.
Further, even after posting 50 points on 26 field goal attempts, a remarkable feat, the Magic still only squeezed out a narrow four-point win over Indiana.
A Paolo-less Magic team is tragic on the offensive end of the floor, which could not be a better situation for the Pacers, who were second in offensive rating at Gainbridge last season.
Orlando can’t possibly score enough points to keep up.
Franz Wagner must take on a massive role with Paolo Banchero. APMagic vs. Pacers Pick
Since losing Banchero, Orlando has stumbled, dropping all three of its games without him on the floor.
In that span, the Magic have the worst net rating (-15.8), the lowest effective field goal percentage (42.6%) by a wide margin (-6.2%) and the worst 3-point percentage (22.2%).
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Indiana holds opponents to the fifth-lowest 3P% at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, so expect a brutal 3-point-shooting night from the Magic.
However, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Pacers decided to pack the paint and force Orlando to shoot a lot of 3s.
Either way, this matchup is brutal for Orlando without Bachero.
Pick: Pacers -5.5 (-110, FanDuel)
