No team in the NHL has punched up as well as the Ottawa Senators over the last two seasons. Since the beginning of the 2020-21 campaign, Ottawa has gone 31-46 in games where it closed as an underdog of at least +150. A win rate of 40.3 percent may not seem all that impressive, but that win rate equates to +147 moneyline odds when converted, so you can see why betting the Sens have been a banker in this spot.

While trends like that are nice fodder and worth considering as part of your handicap, you should dig deeper before you pull the lever. And there are other reasons to like Ottawa against the red-hot Leafs on Saturday night.

On the season, the Senators have skated to a 47.1% expected goals rate in 73 games. But that number has ticked up to 49 percent since March 1, a span of 23 games. And when you consider that only the Islanders have played more games than the Sens in that span, it becomes modestly impressive that Ottawa has come close to breaking even in the xG battle at 5-on-5. 

While it would be foolish to expect Ottawa to control play against the Leafs, who sport one of the best xG rates at 5-on-5 in the NHL, that improvement at least tells you that the chances of the Sens getting shelled are slimmer than they would have been a few weeks ago. 

There won’t be many advantages for Ottawa in this game — they are +215 underdogs at home, after all — but the Sens should have a key edge in the blue paint. The projected goaltending matchup for this game is Anton Forsberg against Erik Kallgren (who has been confirmed as Toronto’s starter). Forsberg, a journeyman who has been a member of six organizations despite only playing in 97 career NHL games, has been a revelation for Ottawa this season. The 29-year-old netminder has skated to a .918 save percentage and +9.45 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 41 games with Ottawa this season. 

His counterpart, Kallgren, has only played in 10 games in his first NHL season and has put up a pedestrian .899 save percentage and a -2.73 GSAx thus far. 

Goaltending is the great equalizer in the NHL, and on paper, Forsberg grades out much better than Kallgren for this game. Whether that will be enough for Ottawa to pull the upset remains to be seen, but with the way Ottawa has performed as big underdogs — it’s worth paying to find out.

The Bet: Ottawa Senators +200 or better