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The Phillies’ nine-game winning streak ended on Sunday after a humbling 13-1 defeat to the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, after a 9-1 run in their last ten games, the Phillies are back to .500 (30-30) and 3.5 games out of a wild card spot.
Philadelphia is now in third place in the NL East after moving ahead of the Marlins by two games. Thus, perhaps it’s only fitting that the two teams meet for a three-game series after swapping spots in the division. Aaron Nola will get the start for the Phillies while the Marlins will counter with Sandy Alcantara. The game will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET.
With Philadelphia’s recent winning streak still fresh in the minds of MLB fans, sportsbooks might’ve got a bit ahead of themselves by opening the Phillies as high as -157 favorites. Let’s examine this matchup and assess whether we should trust Philadelphia at such a high price.
Marlins vs. Phillies MLB odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: MIA +1.5 (-175) vs. PHI -1.5 (+145)
Moneyline: MIA (+115) vs. PHI (-140)
Total: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Marlins vs. Phillies probable pitchers
Sandy Alcantara (6-2, 1.61) vs. Aaron Nola (4-4, 3.50)
Sandy Alcantara Getty ImagesMarlins vs. Phillies prediction
It would be hard to overlook how well Alcantara’s performed this season. According to ESPN.com, he ranks second in baseball with a 3.5 WAR value. His 1.61 ERA is elite, and his hard-hit rate is a career-best 24.3%.
Alcantara resembles a pitcher from the golden era of baseball. Per CodifyBaseball, he’s had a quality start in his last six outings while logging 48 innings of work. That’s a pretty good run considering that seven of nine pitchers who last achieved this feat finished the season with a Cy Young Award.
As for Nola, he’s also coming off a tremendous outing where he pitched eight shutout innings against the Brewers in a 10-0 Phillies victory. While his numbers are undoubtedly decent, given his 4-4 record with a 3.50 ERA and a 3.24 FIP, I am concerned about backing him after such a heavy workload.
The last three times this season that Nola pitched seven innings or more, he allowed at least four runs in his next start. He might even feel more pressure to try to pitch deep into this game and match wits with Alcantara.
Although Nola is often regarded as Philadelphia’s ace, the Phillies are just 92-91 in his starts despite his 71-53 career record. It’s worth noting that the Phillies have also struggled against the Marlins in Nola’s starts.
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According to our ActionLabs database, Philadelphia is 6-11 in this spot for a loss of -6.77 units. Moreover, the Phillies are just 1-6 in Nola’s last seven starts against the Marlins, including an 0-4 skid at home.
With Nola coming off an eight-inning effort, it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s not quite as sharp in this outing. I know Philadelphia got plenty of headlines after winning nine straight games, but Miami quietly has a streak of its own that’s still intact.
The Marlins are on a 6-0 (+4.49 units) run with Alcantara on the mound, and I think they’re a worthy underdog to add to any card on Monday night.
Marlins vs. Phillies pick
Marlins ML +110 (BetMGM)
