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The New York Mets will host the Atlanta Braves on Thursday night, kicking off the biggest series of the season for either team. The Mets, who come into the game with eight wins in their last nine contests, hold a 3.5-game lead over the Braves ahead of the rare five-game set at Citi Field. 

Bookmakers are having a tough time separating the two teams in Thursday’s opener, with the Mets sitting as slight -120 favorites behind Carlos Carrasco while Atlanta is an even-money underdog with Kyle Wright on the mound.

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Spread: NYM -1.5 (+170) vs. ATL +1.5 (-200)

Moneyline: NYM (-120) vs. ATL (+100)

Total: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)

Six weeks ago, it looked like Carrasco was pitching his way out of the Mets’ playoff rotation. The 35-year-old right-hander made nine starts between May 15 and June 28, posting a 6.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, while giving up 1.4 home runs per 9 innings. 

Despite his struggles, Carrasco’s peripheral metrics — he posted a 3.70 xFIP and had a .385 BABIP during that rough nine-game run — pointed to a bounce-back. And bounce back he did.

Carrasco has twirled 18.2 scoreless innings over his last three outings, allowing 15 and six walks for a 1.13 WHIP and a .234 batting average against. Per StatCast, Carrasco has been barreled up just once over his last three starts and has improved his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. 

The Braves are a challenging assignment for any pitcher, but Carrasco’s form suggests he has a decent chance of setting the Mets up for another win on Thursday night. 

Carrasco’s counterpart, Kyle Wright, also checks into this series in good form with five wins and a 2.39 ERA in his last six outings. This kind of stretch is nothing new for the 26-year-old, who boasts a 2.93 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 122.2 innings and ranks fourth among qualified pitchers this season with a 53% groundball rate. 

A few weeks ago, this pitching matchup would look pretty one-sided, and although Wright is still the stronger pitcher compared to Carrasco, the latter’s form sets us up for what could be a sneaky pitchers’ duel, despite both clubs boasting top-10 offenses.

Bookmakers are currently hanging the Over/Under for Thursday’s series opener at 8 runs, but it does look possible that we’ll see this number tick up to 8.5, so bettors looking to take the ‘Under’ can afford to be patient and wait to see if they can nab a better number as we approach first pitch.

The Bet: Under 8 +100 (Caesars)