Fresh off a sweep over the Yankees, the Mets will turn their attention back to the division as they head to Miami for a three-game series.

Chris Bassitt will get the start for the Metropolitans while the Marlins will counter with Sandy Alcántara.

Alcántara is the odds-on-favorite to win the NL Cy Young award, and he’s been in quite a groove, allowing just six earned runs in his last five games. However, the Marlins remain home underdogs even with their ace on the mound.

We’ll dig into the numbers and assess whether the bookmakers got this one wrong on Friday night.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: NYM (-125) vs. MIA (+105)

Spread: NYM -1.5 (+145) vs. MIA +1.5 (-175)

Total: Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-115)

Chris Bassitt (3.72) vs. Sandy Alcántara (1.81)

I’m paying more attention to recent form because I’ve seen that it often trumps historical numbers. I’ve seen this scenario play out quite a few times this season as you have to give the opposition the benefit of the doubt that it can make adjustments as well. That brings us to Friday’s matchup between Alcántara and the Mets.

According to baseballsavant.com, in 202 plate appearances, the Mets’ current lineup is hitting .249 with a .304 wOBA against Alcántara. Their advanced numbers are even better, given a.274 xBA and .317 xWOBA.

However, I suspect those numbers are heavily skewed to their early encounters with the Marlins right-hander. After all, Alcántara is still nine games below .500 (29-38) for his career.

Perhaps there have been some signs pointing to Alcántara having this breakout year. After all, he finished with a 3.00 ERA in the pandemic-shortened season of 2020 and a 3.19 ERA last year.

However, an improved command is primarily responsible for Alcántara vaulting to the top of baseball’s elite. In 2021, Alcántara finished with a BB/9 ratio (2.19) below 3.0 for the first time in his career. This season, he’s right around that mark with a 2.24 BB/9.

And with his stellar command, he’s shown an ability to nibble around the strike zone with exact precision. In 2021 Alcántara induced a career-high (36.7%) of swings on pitches outside the strike zone—a considerable increase from 31.5% in the previous year. This season, he’s within reach yet again with a chase rate of 36.4%.

As a result, Alcántara is a different pitcher than at any other point in his career. In the three games against the Mets this season, he’s lasted at least seven innings, and his highest BB/9 ratio was 1.29 in those outings.

If we turn to Bassitt, there’s no question he’s had a decent year with the Mets. He’s 7-7 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. In his three outings against the Marlins this year, Bassitt registered a quality start in each of them. And while he pitched into the seventh in each of those starts, he didn’t finish the inning on two occasions.

The problem with going up against Alcántara this season is that he often outlasts the opposing pitcher. His ability to shorten the game for the bullpen is why he’s converting more of his starts into wins this season.

Six innings isn’t often enough to beat Alcántara, and I have concerns about whether Bassitt will be up to the task. I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup, and my model agrees as it has Miami’s odds at -115.

I’ll take the value with the home underdogs.

Marlins ML (+105)