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The Mets are slated to start Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 4.07 ERA) on Saturday in Miami, while the Marlins’ plans to counter with Trevor Rogers fell through Friday when the lefty was placed on the 15-day injured list with lower back spasms.
A new starter had not been named as of late Friday night. Whoever the Marlins trot out will be forced to reckon with a hot Mets lineup that has won four straight while averaging 5.8 runs.
Carrasco has been a machine in July, allowing 24 hits and just three runs over 22¹/₃ innings with the Mets going 4-0 in those starts. The Mets also won both of Carrasco’s previous starts versus the Marlins this season.
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Carrasco is pitching well, but current Marlins hitters have had success against him, batting .292 in 119 plate appearances. In the two previous meetings this season, Miami scored a total of five runs, but recorded 15 hits, with both games going over the total.
The Over is 8-3-2 in Carrasco’s last 13 starts, and I like that trend to continue on Saturday.
The play: Mets-Marlins Over.
