We’ve heard for more than a year that the 2019 NFL draft would be a “defensive draft,” so it’s not surprising that when props were posted, oddsmakers made defensive players -2.5 versus offensive players. And it also makes sense that early bettors at William Hill sided with the defense (74 percent of the tickets and 57 percent of the money) and bet the -2.5 from -110 to -130.
However, I’m going to fade both the original line and the market move and take offensive players +2.5 (+110) on Thursday night.
The NFL has become a “passing league,” in which the No. 1 priority is getting a marquee quarterback and the No. 2 priority is getting that QB weapons to work with or protection on the line. I believe the decision-makers in the “war rooms” will default to that thinking and get us enough offensive players out of the first 32 picks to win this wager.
I agree with Jeremy Layton’s piece at nypost.com that called the mock draft an exercise in futility, but it’s the best resource we’ve got. It’s a small sample in a booming cottage industry, but ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay did a mock draft, as did my VSiN colleague Matt Youmans, and all ended up with 16 offensive players and 16 defensive players.
That wins our bet, and we also cash even if defensive players end up ahead 17-15, as in Steve Serby’s final mock draft for The Post. I just can’t see 18-14 (which is what it would take to beat us), especially since it’s more likely for the late picks in the first round to be spots for teams to trade up to take an offensive player (like the Ravens with QB Lamar Jackson last year).
The play: Offensive players +2.5 (+110) vs. defensive players in first round.


