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Mondays are generally a lighter day in Major League Baseball, with the league issuing off days for various teams. Today’s slate is no different as there are just ten games on the schedule. And since ten games are around what I tend to bet under normal circumstances, I’ve already taken a position on nine games on the card.

One matchup that caught my eye is the Pirates traveling to Miami to take on the Marlins. Mitch Keller is the projected starter for Pittsburgh, while the Marlins will counter with Trevor Rogers.

The Pirates are coming off an impressive series on the road against the Brewers. In addition, the Buccos have either split or won their past four series.

Surprisingly, Miami is as high as a -160 home favorite in the series opener. However, I’ll explain why that number might be a tad too high, especially given the pitching matchup. 

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: PIT (+135) vs. MIA (-160)

Spread: PIT +1.5 (-155) vs. MIA -1.5 (+125)

Total: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Mitch Keller (5.21) vs. Trevor Rogers (5.57)

I was shocked to see the Marlins as such a high favorite with Rogers getting the start. The left-hander is just 4-7 with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. Opposing hitters are making solid contact against Rogers, given their barrel rate of 7.6 percent. Command has also been an issue for the left-hander when you factor in his 4.46 BB/9 ratio.

What’s surprising is that Rogers is falling behind hitters despite a first-pitch strike rate of 60 percent. That tells me he’s struggling to put hitters away even after getting ahead in the count. Thus, the notion that the Marlins are as high as -160 on the moneyline should seem somewhat suspicious to bettors.

As for Keller, he’s 2-6 on the year with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. However, the advanced metrics show that Keller is a candidate for positive regression given his 4.15 FIP and 4.16 xFIP. Both of Keller’s predictive numbers are better than that of Rogers, who has a 4.66 FIP and 4.55 xFIP. Keller is also issuing fewer walks, evidenced by his 3.79 BB/9 ratios.

Keller’s ability to pitch down in the zone is the one stat that probably stands out the most. His 1.71 GB/FB ratio is above-average which supports our assertion that he’s probably been a bit unlucky this season. While there’s no guarantee that things will turn around for Keller, it’s difficult to overlook his value at the current market price.

My model makes the Marlins no more than a -120 favorite in this spot. It’s worth noting that the Pirates have fared well against the Marlins on the road, as they’re 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Monday games can often be tricky with teams traveling or returning home from a long road trip.

According to our Action Labs database, the Marlins have the third-worst mark in the league at 2-7 for a loss of 5.54 units.

As a result, I like the value with the road underdogs at +135.

Pirates ML +135 (BetMGM)