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It took a little bit, but it looks like the Tampa Bay Lightning have finally arrived at the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals.

Despite needing to climb back from a 2-0 deficit, the Lightning were full value in their Game 3 victory. Tampa outshot the Rangers, 51-30, held a 14-5 edge in high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 and, if not for Igor Shesterkin’s nightly heroics, the Lightning likely would have won easily.

Alsosee: Updated Stanley Cup odds (as of 6/7)

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: NYR +1.5 (-180) vs. TB -1.5 (+150)

Moneyline: NYR (+145) vs. TB (-175)

Total: Over 5.5 (+110) | Under 5.5 (-135)

It’s just one game and the Lightning are still down in the series, but they’ve remained in touching distance of the Rangers, which is vital considering the advantages that the Blueshirts had in the early going. 

Not only were the Rangers playing at home for Games 1 and 2, but the Lightning were coming off a long layoff, which seemed to throw them off their rhythm after a four-game sweep of the Panthers. That was especially true of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who looked out of sorts for the first five periods of the series, but now seems to be trending back to his normal, exceptional level.

Now that this series is guaranteed to go at least five games, the rest vs. rust narrative flips. Tampa Bay should be much fresher as we get to the business end of this series compared to the Rangers, who went seven games with the Penguins and Hurricanes in the first two rounds of the postseason.

That should be especially helpful in the goaltending battle. At some point you’d have to imagine fatigue will at least begin to catch up to Shesterkin, which could at the very least level the playing field a bit as Vasilevskiy looks to build on his strong Game 3. 

Part of the credit for Vasilevskiy’s performance in Game 3 should go to Tampa’s team defense. The Lightning held the Rangers to just 1.51 expected goals on 20 shots on goal at 5-on-5 on Sunday afternoon.

And with Tampa still holding home-ice advantage for Game 4, we could see a similar effort from the Lightning in their own end as Jon Cooper will continue to look to match up Anthony Cirelli, Ryan McDonagh, and Erik Cernak against the Mika Zibanejad line as much as possible.

With Shesterkin playing at an MVP level, Vasilevskiy trending up with plenty of room to go until he hits his ceiling, and Tampa’s defense looking stronger, this series looks like it’s heading towards another under. 

Under 5.5 (-135) — BetMGM