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Scottie Scheffler is your 2022 Masters champion and now the golf circuit travels to South Carolina for the 2022 RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links.

A number of familiar names and faces from the Masters will make the short trip, including this week’s tournament favorite Justin Thomas (+1200). Other notable names include Cameron Smith and Collin Morikawa (+1400) while Dustin Johnson (+1600) and Patrick Cantlay (+1800) round out the top five on the outright odds board.

But before we dive into the various markets available for the event, here’s how I’m tackling the tournament from a modeling standpoint. Aside from the six statistical factors I’m considering, it’s also worth noting that I’m adding two sorting factors: “fast” green speeds and course lengths under 7200 yards to help specify my model.

I can’t stress this enough – the Harbour Town greens are tiny.

The average square footage of the 18 greens at the Pete Dye-designed course is a minuscule 3600 square feet. For context, the average green size on the PGA Tour calendar is almost 6600 square feet.

As a result, players will need to be hyper-accurate with their approaches to each hole in order to maximize scoring opportunities. Plus, there’s a strong correlation between leading the field in SG: approach and finishing position. Three of the last four winners at this event have finished seventh or better for the week in this category while two of the last five have finished inside the top two of this category.

That’s why I’m choosing to place the most emphasis on this category as I believe players that have shown success in this category owns the best chance to win. With that in mind, here are the top five players in this category over the last 36 rounds with odds to win provided by BetMGM.

The Par-71 Harbour Town Golf Links is littered with Par 4’s, including some very short holes where players should take advantage.

In fact, there are three Par 4’s that come in under 400 yards on the official scorecard, two of which are under 375 yards. Seven of the remaining eight Par 4’s come in at under 455 yards, so a demonstrated ability to outpace the field on these holes will be critical this weekend.

Plus, six of the 11 Par 4’s at this course rank among the 10 easiest holes, so I’ll be very surprised if a player wins this weekend without scoring well on these holes, hence the high emphasis.

That said, here are the leaders in this category over the last 36 rounds with their betting odds provided by BetMGM

There are only three Par 5’s at Harbour Town Golf Links, but failed to score on these holes will see players’ chances of winning diminish.

Two straight winners at this course have seen at least 40 percent of their final score come from their scores on the Par 5’s, all of which rank among the four easiest holes on the golf course.

Two holes – the second and fifth – also saw at least a two percent eagle percentage and at least a 44 percent birdie percentage last year. Therefore par or worse at these holes could be detrimental to a player’s chances. Given history tells us these holes are of extreme importance, I have no choice but the rank this stat quite highly even though there are only three holes/round.

Here are the leaders in this category over the last 36 rounds with their associated odds:

The speed of the greens could trip some players up here, so I’m looking for players that can not only be accurate with approaches into the greens but can avoid bogey once that happens.

Further, given the winning scores have been quite high here over the last few years (-19 won last year with the five-year average coming in at -15.6), dropping shots could impact a player’s chances. For example, last year’s winner Stewart Cink carded bogey or worse on only three holes all week. Webb Simpson, the 2020 winner, made bogey or worse on only five holes.

Overall, winners here gain about 0.24 strokes/round in terms of three-putt avoidance, while a top-10 finisher only gains about 0.17 strokes/round. So while it’s not going to decide the champion, a strong putter will come in handy at Harbour Town.

Here are the leaders in this category across the last 36 rounds as well as their betting odds:

Given how short the course plays, driving distance really isn’t a factor at Harbour Town.

Driving accuracy, on the other hand, is an important statistic. At the average PGA Tour event, a good driving accuracy percentage is around 62 percent. Here, that same percentage comes in at 66 percent. So, while not the biggest discrepancy, there is a correlation between hitting the fairway and scoring well.

Plus, in terms of fairways gained, winners gain about 0.474 strokes/round on the field while that same figure comes in at 0.398 strokes/round for a top-10 finish. Again, I’ll be surprised if that stat decides the winner, but players should find scoring much easier if they’re playing from the short grass.

Here are the leaders in this category over the last 36 rounds with associated odds:

The reason behind this low emphasis is that it runs counter-intuitive to my leader factor, but I still think it’s somewhat important.

With how small these greens are, players are bound to miss a few here and there. And just like last week at Augusta, I want my model to identify players who can be creative with their short game and get themselves out of trouble.

Overall, scrambling is more important here than at the average tour event – the latter percentage comes in at 57.7 percent while the former arrives at 61.9 percent – so there’s a small correlation with success.

Lastly, two of the last three winners finished seventh or better in this category for the week. Here are the leaders in this category entering the event with betting odds: