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Nick Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox will play host to highly touted prospect Joe Ryan and the Minnesota Twins to kick off a four-game series on Friday in the Red Sox home opener. Neither pitcher particularly dazzled in his first appearance of the season, but Ryan was a bit more encouraging considering his ceiling.
The total is the line to exploit here. It opened at 11 on Thursday afternoon and has since dropped to 10.5, but there is still plenty of value in it. Yes, Fenway Park is a hitters’ ballpark, but neither team has flipped the switch on offense just yet, and given the arsenal from Ryan, he can at least limit Boston hitters early in this game.
Ryan maybe can keep the Twins in this game. He has used his fastball consistently at a 60 percent clip in his first game, but he alternates between a slider, curveball, and changeup as his off-speed options. On these off-speed pitches, since the beginning of the 2021 season, Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers are the only two batters with a .325+ xwOBA for Boston, so it’s a favorable matchup for Ryan in that sense.
There is no reason this total should be as high as it opened. Neither of these teams has hit well so far this season, and they’ve both had issues against righties. Each bullpen has enough pieces to prevent runs in later innings, and neither lineup has enough artillery to put up a lot of runs in this game.
The play: Red Sox-Twins Under 10.5 runs.
