One of VSiN’s goals in pro football coverage this season is to encourage handicappers to spend more time studying red-zone performance. There are team skill sets related to maximizing offensive opportunities in close, or to repelling touchdown tries on defense. Those are often the difference-makers for bettors in games with tight point spreads.
Some of you may be skeptical about the importance of red-zone statistics. It’s true starting a new series of downs at the 4-yard-line after a big play isn’t as difficult as starting at the 20.
But, third-and-2 is a lot easier than third-and-9, yet third-down rates on offense and defense are among the most important indicator stats in football. It’s easier to rack up nice yards-per-play numbers on soft defenses or on fast tracks in domes. It’s easier to punt for distance in Denver.
It’s harder to make all of your field goals in the winter in swirling winds. Complications are always in play.
Smart analysts accept that no stat is perfect. They use a wide variety of indicators to make good faith evaluations of team strengths and weaknesses.
Problems in the red zone are one of the defining offensive characteristics of both the Giants and Jets so far in 2018.
Bottom five red-zone offenses
| RANK | TEAM | TD% |
| 28th | Raiders | 45% |
| 29th | Giants | 44% |
| 30th | Jaguars | 39% |
| 31st | Texans | 35% |
| 32nd | Jets | 30% |
The Jets don’t just trail the league, they’re way behind other bad red-zone offenses! It would take six touchdowns in their next six red-zone trips just to reach a percentage better than Oakland’s. The current league midpoint is around 56 percent. The Jets are obviously a long way from average. Giants are closer to average than they are to the Jets, but still the fourth-worst offense in pro football at this skill set.
But, there is some good news here. The Jets have a 3-3 record anyway. It’s not uncommon for a rookie quarterback to struggle to find the end zone in close. Smart signal callers do get things figured out. In fact, this is one of the great stats for monitoring how well or how quickly a young QB is doing that. If Sam Darnold improves as he learns, the Jets have a chance to maintain their current run at the .500 mark for the full season.
Also worth noting is the Jets have performed well in terms of quick strikes on offense, and impact plays via defense or special teams. New York scored 34 and 42 points the past two weeks despite scoring TDs on just two of nine red-zone tries against the Broncos and Colts.
Things are much more complicated for the 1-5 Giants. Despite having a veteran quarterback, a head coach who used to be an offensive coordinator, and a few rushing or receiving weapons, the G-Men’s outlook feels bleaker because of offensive-line woes. And, even if they improve enough to play .500 ball the rest of the way, that only yields a 6-10 final record.
We encourage you to start monitoring this stat on a game-by-game basis. NFL box scores at espn.com show red-zone performance. You can search teamrankings.com for season-to-date percentages.
The Jets draw the much tougher red-zone test this week. Sunday, they’ll play host to a Vikings team that ranks No. 2 in red-zone defense. While Monday night, the Giants catch a break in visiting the porous Falcons, who rank 30th in close on that side of the ball.


