If you’ve been a pro football fan for any length of time, you’ve grown accustomed to seeing the Patriots in the Super Bowl. This is their ninth trip in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era.
It’s important for bettors to note, though, New England is a dynasty because it keeps getting to the Super Bowl. Once in the Super Bowl, the Patriots haven’t established meaningful scoreboard superiority over NFC opponents.
- 2002: Patriots (+14) 20, Rams 17
- 2004: Patriots (-7) 32, Panthers 29
- 2005: Patriots (-7) 24, Eagles 21
- 2008: Giants (+12) 17, Patriots 14
- 2012: Giants (+3) 21, Patriots 17
- 2015: Patriots (-1) 28, Seahawks 24
- 2017: Patriots (-3) 34, Falcons 28 (OT)
- 2018: Eagles (+4¹/₂) 41, Patriots 33
Composite score: Patriots 202, Opponents 198 … Average score: Patriots 25.25, Opponents 24.75
Six nail-biters before the eight-point loss a year ago.
Belichick and Brady caught the world by surprise in 2002, beating the market by 17 points in a big upset. Since, the Patriots are 1-6 against the spread in regulation in Super Bowls (needing overtime to cover vs. Atlanta), and it would be 0-7 against the spread in regulation if not for a strategic blunder from Seattle.
Earlier this week, we talked about the importance of the “key” number three in football betting. Results in New England Super Bowls really drive home that point. The Patriots are 5-3 straight up. Their regulation margins in those wins from low to high were 0, 3, 3, 3, and 4 points. If New England was -2¹/₂ in those eight games, they’d have gone 4-4 vs. expectations in regulation. At -3, the mark falls to 1-5-3. The one time the Patriots won in regulation by more than three points is the game they should have lost to Seattle.
A case can certainly be made that “betting on the Patriots” offers value because they could win clean … or their coaching and experience advantages might find a way to pull another nail-biter out of the fire. Though, the same could have been said last year against Philadelphia. That was also an indoor game against a young quarterback playing for an offensive guru.
Philadelphia scored 41 points on 538 yards and 7.6 yards-per-play … with touchdown drives of 77, 65, 70, 85, and 75 yards.
There’s clear public sentiment betting the “dynasty” at a cheap price vs. “the team that shouldn’t even be here.” Bettors must remember the “dynasty” doesn’t include Super Bowl domination, and the “tainted” underdog is still loaded with versatile talent. The most popular “sharp” bet in Super Bowl LIII is still Rams +3.
Watch VSiN all day Sunday for intense market coverage of the biggest sports betting event of the year featuring experts from both sides of the counter. And, don’t miss our “Betcast” during the game that will update live betting developments and prop results. Best of luck with your bets!
