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Although Monday provides bettors with a limited slate of options, three games are catching meaningful attention from the betting community.
How is this distinguished? The Action Network PRO Report designates five factors — sharp money, big money, PRO systems, model edge, and expert picks — to help separate certain plays from others available.
Today’s report has identified one MLB side and two MLB totals that trigger a majority of the above factors. So without further, ado here are the markets respected bettors are identifying.
Pick #1 – San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-150) vs. San Diego Padres
Both teams are off to positive starts after their respective opening series, but today’s report likes the Giants as home favorites.
We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the hosts, which sit a half-game back of the Padres in the NL West. Additionally, big money has been shown for the Giants as well. As of this writing, it has received 66 percent of all moneyline bets, but 84 percent of the overall handle. That represents the second-largest handle percentage across today’s 11-game MLB slate.
Finally, one top MLB expert for the Action Network is backing San Francisco today, rounding out the three signals in favor of the 2014 World Series champions. They are currently, -150 on BetMGM.
Pick #2 – Oakland A’s/Tampa Bay Rays Under 9 Runs -105 (DraftKings)
This total has a sizable percentage discrepancy and triggers the “Big Money” signal as the first of three.
At writing, the under has received only 36 percent of all bets but has simultaneously received 80 percent of the handle. That is tied for the second-biggest money percentage on today’s card and is the second-largest percentage discrepancy across the 11-game slate.
Further, Action Network model projections suggest this total is narrowly too high. According to our MLB power ratings, the total between these two teams should be set closer to 7.9 runs, so bettors are getting about a half-run of value.
Finally, one Action Network MLB expert is backing the under tonight, satisfying three of five signals. DraftKings has the line of nine runs set at -105.
Jose Trevino hits a single during the Yankees’ loss to the Red Sox. USA TODAY SportsPick #3 – New York Yankees/Toronto Blue Jays Under 9 Runs
The Blue Jays cleared this total in two of three against the Rangers to open the season, but seasoned bettors are targeting an under here.
We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the under, which has held steady at the opening number since the market opened. Additionally, big money has shown in spades for the under, which has only received 18 percent of all bets. However, it has also received 70 percent of the handle, the largest percentage discrepancy on the board.
Additionally, one Action Network PRO system is further supporting the case for an under tonight. The “Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams” system, which targets an under between two teams with at least a 50 percent winning percentage and has the percentage of a bet between 0 and 35 percent, has a 55 percent win rate and seven percent return on investment.
