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Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final between the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) is currently sitting as a pick’em across the betting market, meaning it could be the first game of the postseason that the Avalanche do not close as the chalk. No team in the Action Labs database (which goes back to 2005) has made it this far into the Stanley Cup Playoffs without closing as an underdog at least once.

And it does seem pretty surprising that this would be the game to end Colorado’s streak. The Avs have dominated the first two games of the series, outscoring the Bolts 11-3 overall and 7-3 at even strength. There’s been nothing flukey about the performance either, as the Avs have a decided edge in shot attempts (139-89), shots on goal (68-39), expected goals (6.1 to 2.8) and high-danger scoring chances (26-13). 

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: COL +1.5 (-275) vs. TB -1.5 (+220)

Moneyline: COL (-110) vs. TB (-110)

Total: Over 6 (+100) | Under 6 (-120)

Usually, when a team blows the doors off its opponent like Colorado did to Tampa in Game 2, the betting market will adjust towards the team that did the dominating. But on this occasion, it’s actually the Lightning who seem a little expensive considering what we’ve seen in the first two games of this best-of-7.

Judging by the current market prices, it seems like bettors are willing to give the two-time defending champs the benefit of the doubt and are expecting a desperate Lightning team on Monday night. 

For that to happen, the Lightning will need to improve drastically in their own zone. When the Bolts are at their best, they are a detail-oriented team that plays a well-structured defensive game. Tampa Bay is perhaps the best team in the league at getting in shooting lanes and controlling traffic in front of its own net.

If that structure does break down, the Lightning have the game’s best goaltender to bail them out. Unfortunately for the Bolts, that structure has abandoned them so far in this series and Andrei Vasilevskiy has gotten off to a slow start in between the pipes. 

With the onus on the defense to improve, it makes sense that Tampa will come out in Game 3 and try to establish a more prodding tempo. One of the keys to Colorado’s dominance is that the Avs have been able to find a couple of early goals in each contest, which forces the Lightning to open the game up and come out of their preferred defensive style. The Lightning have a -5 goal differential in the first period so far in this best-of-7 series, which is a recipe for disaster for a team that thrives in tight contests. 

With the series shifting back to Amalie Arena, the Lightning will get the matchups they want and will do everything they can to turn this into an ugly game. While a slower style does benefit the Lightning, the Avs showed last round that they have no problem playing in rock fights and they won’t force the issue if their opponent shells up.

There are a lot of signals pointing to Game 3 being more of a chess match. Wager accordingly.

Under 6 (-120)  — BetMGM