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The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, two long shots from the preseason futures market, will battle for the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday.

While both teams were sleepers coming into the regular season, they were near the top of the standings — and betting board — when the postseason kicked off last month.

And it’s not a shock that the Seahawks are holding firm as a 4.5-point favorite, given their status as the top dog coming into the playoffs.

The Over/Under opened at 46.5 points, but dipped to 45.5 points in the early betting period.

We’ll see where these numbers move as we get closer to the big moment, as most money doesn’t hit the market until the hours leading up to the show.

The Big Game is set to get underway at 6:30 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Feb. 8 for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

The Patriots have been impressive throughout the season, and they backed that play up in the tournament, but clearly, the betting market is questioning the path for New England.

The Pats had no issues with the Chargers in Round 1, but they benefited from several turnovers by the Texans in the Divisional Round, and they caught a big break when Bo Nix was injured for the Broncos.

Some dubious calls also went New England’s way in the AFC Championship.

The Seahawks routed the 49ers and then went toe-to-toe with the Rams to punch their ticket.

The Super Bowl MVP is the most recognizable individual award tied to a single game in American sports. One game decides it. Fair or not, the honor often becomes a permanent part of how a player’s career is framed.

Unlike regular-season awards, the Super Bowl MVP is purely situational. It rewards performance under the highest pressure, usually favoring the player who had the most influence on the outcome. 

In most cases, that player is the quarterback. The position touches the ball on every snap, controls the pace of the game, and benefits from a narrative that aligns leadership with winning. It’s no wonder that sportsbooks almost always install the two opposing signal-callers as the betting favorites to win the award.

Seven of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs were quarterbacks, with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (three) and New England’s Tom Brady (two), making up half the list. Brady, a five-time winner, has claimed the award more than any other player in NFL history.

Going back even further, 17 of the last 26 winners were QBs, which comes out to 65 percent. 

The last three winners (Mahomes, Mahomes, Jalen Hurts) were quarterbacks.

That said, the award has not been entirely predictable. Two wide receivers (Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams and Julian Edelman of the New England Patriots) won Super Bowl MVP in a four-year span between 2019 and 2022. And two linebackers (Von Miller of the Denver Broncos and Malcolm Smith of the Seattle Seahawks) won it in a three-year period between 2014 and 2016.

Perhaps the most unlikely winner in the last 25 years was Nick Foles, a backup quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles who turned in the performance of a lifetime in Super Bowl LII, beating Brady’s Patriots to give Philadelphia its first Lombardi Trophy.

Believe it or not, there are already odds listed for the 2026 Super Bowl MVP. As you’d expect, the list is topped by the quarterbacks of the teams with the best odds to lift the trophy.

Sam Darnold (+250) is the current favorite to win the award, followed by Drake Maye (+275), and Matthew Stafford (+300). Jarrett Stidham is 20/1, putting him behind non-quarterbacks like Jaxson Smith-Njigba (14/1), Kenneth Walker III (16/1), and Puka Nacua (16/1).

Odds via bet365.

While point spreads, moneylines, and totals still draw the most money at the betting window for the Super Bowl, prop bets have become the most popular entry point for casual bettors. These wagers allow casual fans to get in on the action as much as bettors who get money down every week. 

That’s because some of the most popular props posted at sportsbooks for the Super Bowl have nothing to do with the game at all.

That’s a welcome development for folks at Super Bowl parties who have no interest in the game, football, or sports. And it’s a big part of why prop betting has grown alongside the Super Bowl’s evolution into a full-day entertainment event. 

These bets are fun, simple, and accessible. They don’t require much homework. You do not need to break down game film, follow along for an entire season, or understand advanced analytics to participate. That’s why these bets now dominate the betting menu – and discussion – ahead of the Super Bowl.

These are the most traditional prop bets and the closest in spirit to standard sports wagering. They focus on individual player statistics and game output.

Common examples include:

These props are popular because they allow bettors to focus on one player rather than the entire game. A bettor might not have a strong opinion on which team will win, but they may feel confident that a star receiver will be heavily targeted. These bets also make it easier to root for individual moments, such as a long completion or a red-zone carry.

Additionally, they can keep you invested in a game even if the outcome has been decided. 

Team props focus on outcomes tied to one team’s performance rather than individual players.

Examples include:

Game-flow props are tied to when something happens or how the game unfolds over time.

Examples include:

The coin toss has become one of the most popular Super Bowl wagers since the widespread legalization of sports betting.

The appeal is pretty obvious. It’s a simple outcome. It’s quick. And it kicks off the game, so it’s a great way to get invested right away.

And while this best requires no football knowledge and is simply a guess, you do still have to pay the vig on the wager (it’s almost always offered Heads -110/Tails -110), so plenty of professional bettors will tell you that it’s not a good bet based on implied probability.

The Gatorade bath has become an iconic part of the Super Bowl, and thus, sportsbooks have capitalized by offering a betting market on the color of the drink.

Typical color options include:

Like with the coin toss, it’s easy to see why this is such a popular market. The game is over, the celebrations have begun, but there is still time to sweat out a bet. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that there is always drama surrounding this prop, especially on social media. There have even been instances where players have allegedly peeked at the Gatorade.

The Super Bowl halftime show attracts a massive audience, many of whom are not focused on the game itself. They are at parties watching the commercials, enjoying the food, and getting ready for the halftime show. Sportsbooks have leaned into that with a wide range of entertainment-related props related to the various musical performances that take place throughout the Big Game.

Examples include:

Some props exist purely for entertainment and conversation.

Examples include:

These bets are not about skill or strategy. They are designed to be lighthearted and social. They are especially popular in group betting pools and Super Bowl parties.

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.