ACC play is starting with a bang with a battle of top-10 teams in Charlottesville, Va., on Saturday as Florida State attempts to hand Virginia its first loss of the season.
Despite going 7-1 in their past eight games, the Seminoles enter the game having covered just once in that stretch. Florida State has closed as favorites of at least nine points seven times in that stretch and finds itself in uncharted territory as an underdog.
Virginia has covered nine of its 12 games, on the other hand, doing so with the nation’s top defense in points-per-game allowed. The Cavaliers held each of the five teams they faced in December to a season low in points, and Maryland is the only team that has scored more than 64 points on them this season.
Though the defense is stout, the Cavaliers’ offense is also better than advertised. Virginia enters this contest third in the country in points per possession on offense, scoring 74.7 points in 63.5 possessions per game. This shows Virginia gets its desired pace and thrives by being deliberate.
Another reason Virginia has covered so consistently this season is the team ranking 10th in the country in free-throw shooting percentage, with there being no true weak link teams can hack at the end of games. Florida State is 46th in that category as well, but may not get many chances at the line. Virginia is 20th in the country in fewest fouls per game committed, and Florida State ranks 282nd — giving 4.6 more fouls per game.
With the likes of Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome having Virginia shooting 39.2 percent from deep the Cavaliers have the goods to not just win this battle of top-10 teams, but cover the spread.
The play: Virginia.


