Iowa State has been a great home underdog in recent years, but I’m not afraid to fade the Cyclones when installed as home chalk. The last time they were favored, they failed to cover -19¹/₂ against Akron. Now they’re laying points to a Texas Tech team that has already traveled to Oklahoma State and TCU and come away with outright upsets.

I give Texas Tech the edge on both offense and defense. The only thing making Iowa State worthy of favoritism here is its 30-14 upset of West Virginia, which beat Texas Tech 42-34 in a shootout. (The Red Raiders had to do without QB Alan Bowman, who was injured in the first half). Bowman should lead the upset here.

The play: Texas Tech, +3 ¹/₂.