Saturday’s blockbuster Big Ten battle featuring No. 4 Michigan at No. 10 Ohio State (Fox, noon) presents a tricky challenge for handicappers. Oddsmakers have known for a while that “everyone wants to bet Michigan” because Ohio State has looked so vulnerable. That’s why the Wolverines are favored by more than a field goal on foreign soil in Columbus.
How can anyone bet on a Buckeyes team that lost 49-20 at Purdue … missing the point spread by 41 points?! Ohio State is 1-7 against the spread in its past eight, with the past four non-covers all by double digits.
Michigan feels like a sure thing if you focus on its best games and Ohio State’s worst. The problem is, the Wolverines’ best efforts usually come in Ann Arbor. Road offense has been an issue versus bowl-caliber opponents. Michigan lost at Notre Dame, 24-17, laying two points; beat Northwestern, 20-17, at -15; and beat Michigan State, 21-7, at -7¹/₂.
That game in East Lansing was an ugly 7-7 late in the fourth quarter before Michigan finally started to move the ball. Ohio State won by a similar 26-6 score two weeks ago on the same field (its only point spread cover in the past two months). Bottom line: Michigan hasn’t been “final-four caliber” away from Ann Arbor.
The Buckeyes feel like pretenders because of so many market misses and poor overall defense. It’s possible both teams are national pretenders playing in an over-marketed “corporate partners with everybody” conference. We won’t know that until bowl season.
In addition to the home/road dynamic, VSiN wants to point you to an analytical factor few are talking about: Pace. Ohio State plays racehorse football, leading the nation in offensive plays per game at 82.5. Michigan is much slower, ranking a bit below the national average at 68.2.
It’s common to hear discussions about pace in basketball. Being able to isolate which teams can take others out of their comfort zones is very valuable. That may be the hidden key to picking Saturday’s football winner.
If Michigan can disrupt Ohio State’s lightning-fast offensive rhythm, and keep the Buckeyes’ talented playmakers off the field for long stretches, the point spread is probably too low. Michigan’s offense will march down the field the way Purdue’s (and Nebraska’s … and Maryland’s … and TCU’s) did so easily. Ohio State’s defense ranks 85th nationally in yards-per-play allowed at 5.9.
If Ohio State and a loud home crowd can speed up Michigan’s metabolism in a way that creates a loss of composure, who knows? The Wolverines have committed only eight turnovers this season, but half of them came on the road against Notre Dame and Michigan State. Michigan protected the ball well against Northwestern, but had its second-worst penalty game and worst in offensive first-down volume.
The team that imposes its pace has a better chance of imposing its will. Which teams can do that away from home? A question to put front and center in your analytical process as we approach Championship Week, the bowls, and the final four.
